After years of speculation, China has finally dropped its peg to US dollar. The pegged value of the RMB or Yuan has been adjusted to 8.11 from 8.31. This humble revaluation of 2.5% will for the most part do little to ease the United States’ trade deficit. It does however have significant political and market implications. Most US Senators feel that the revaluation move was too small and that China needs to allow the currency to increase in value, especially since 2.5% pales in comparison to the RMB’s predicted undervaluation of 30-40%.
China is keeping its 0.3% percent daily trading band against the dollar, which means that even with this move there will not be a lot of volatility in the currency pair. China has many reasons to want to revalue their currency. The revaluation also makes imports cheaper for China. This comes at a critical time when commodity prices are rising. The revaluation immediately makes prices of commodities such as oil 2.5% cheaper for the Chinese.
China’s move has many consequences for all of the financial markets. The most significant of which will probably be in US treasuries. China is the world’s second largest holder of US treasuries. China’s revaluation and move to a basket float significantly reduces their need for US treasuries and could potentially take away a big buyer from the market. If this is the case, it will cause bond prices to decrease and long-term yields to rally, which could offset some of the additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates. If China even begins to dump US treasuries, we could see the “yield curve conundrum” begin to fix itself. "Yield curve conundrum" refers to how Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan described the strange result that, despite six successive 25-basis-point increases in the federal-funds rate since June 2004, longer-term interest rates actually declined during the same period.
The reduced demand for US treasuries and the possibility of increased demand for other currencies such as Euros and Japanese Yen could be very detrimental for the US dollar. Right now, the dollar is holding somewhat steady against the Euro due to the fact that China has yet to announce the currencies within the basket they plan to use to base the float on. Once they confirm that the Euro will be included in the basket, the single currency could skyrocket. The one major...
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...f the Yuan increases the risk for default on non-performing loans for the country’s banking sector. China’s banking system has a significant amount of non-performing loans and although there’s been a mobilization to solve this problem, with many of the non-performing loans being exported and bought by large US investors, it is still a problem that exists to some extent. An increase in the value of the Yuan will automatically increase the value of the non-performing loans. Also, the Chinese government has massive amounts of US dollar assets, which they used to peg the Yuan. These assets will lose value in proportion with the revaluation of the Yuan.
This is only the beginning of China’s revaluation. China will be repeatedly pressured to institute a larger revaluation. The managed float allowed them to gradually adjust the value of the Yuan without major sudden changes to their economy. Central banks worldwide are going to be eager to take the Yuan as a reserve currency because it is guaranteed to go up in relative value. With the U.S. running massive federal and trade deficits, central banks around the globe are eager to diversify away from the dollar.