Predicting Portfolio Investment Returns

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Portfolio is grouping of financial assets such as stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. It is a collection of different securities that are combined and considered as a single asset by an investor.
Portfolios are held directly by the investors and managed by financial professionals altogether. The risk-return characteristics of the portfolio are different than the characteristics of assets that make up that portfolio especially with regard to risk.
This process of mixing together the broad classes to obtain return with minimum risk is called portfolio construction

CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL
This model is used for prediction that how an investment returns is determined in an efficient capital market and it breaks up the riskiness of each security into two components namely the market related risk which cannot be diversified at all called systematic risk measured by the beta coefficient and other which can be eliminated through diversification is called unsystematic risk.
CAPM expected return of security is given is:
E(R) = Rf + ß (ERm - Rf )
E(R) = expected return of security ß = beta of security
Rf = risk free rate
ERm = expected return of market portfolio

Applications of CAPM model is as follows:
• Optimum portfolio depends upon market risk-return and individual investors differences in risk.
• Relation between expected return and risk is linearly related for all the portfolios and individual assets. o High beta portfolios earn high risk premiums. o Low beta portfolios earn low risk premiums.
Stock price beta measures risk for all securities.

MARKOWITZ THEORY:
This theory is widely used in the construction of portfolio. Theory explain that for the given level of expected return in a group of securities one security domin...

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...g Per Share (EPS) Growth:
EPS Growth = {(Present year EPS / Last Year EPS – 1)} * 100
It indicates relative growth of EPS over the last two periods.
h) Book value (BV) Growth:
BV Growth = {(Present Year BV / Last Year BV – 1)} * 100
It indicates relative growth of BV over the last two periods.
3. Valuation Parameters:
Valuation ratios are related to Current Market Price. They are volatile in general.
a) Price to Earnings (PE) ratio:
PE = Current Market Price / EPS
Price to Earnings ratio is the important parameter. It indicates valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings.

b) Price to Book (P/B):
P/B = CMP / BV
Price to Book ratio is very important ratio for value investors.
c) Dividend Yield:
Dividend Yield = Dividend per share / Current Market Price
This indicates dividend return in percentage terms of total investments.

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