Philippines Intervention

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The Philippines is a Southeast Asian archipelago with a population of over one hundred million. The country is ethnically diverse, but has a majority Roman Catholic population due to its occupation by Spanish colonial forces starting in the 17th century. This paper describes four potential crisis scenarios with a high degree of probability based on social, political, and geographic contingencies.
2. Overall Scenario: As mentioned in the graphical depiction, the planning team identified four possible scenario generation events that would require US intervention in Philippines. These scenarios include: humanitarian assistance, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), an internal insurgency/rebellion and an international conflict. Early and adequate response is critical as population increase and more people are exposed to hazards.
3. WMD/TIC Scenario: Indicators of WMD/TIC scenario could entail sick personnel, environmental degradation, regulatory issues (compliance, neglect, and corruption), and infrastructure disruption. In the case of a WMD/TIC crisis, American intervention agencies may be diverse and include FEMA, USAID, the CDC, the EPA, and also contracted civilians overseen by GSA or a contractor agency. In addition to American agency support, the event may require multi-national cooperation depending on the extent of the disaster.
The United States no longer maintains permanent military bases on the Philippines, making organization and coordination more costly than it would have been prior to 1992. However, the MARO Handbook (2010) points out that mass atrocity response operations (MARO) are to be planned ahead of time because they are preventative in nature. This is why it is helpful to foresee the potential problems that mi...

... middle of paper ...

...gn Terrorist Organization list (CIA, 2014). The Southern Philippines is an area of particular concern, due to the Moro National Liberation Front.
6. Quad 4 (International Conflict): International Conflict is also possible in Philippines. China and the Philippines have tense relations over territorial claims in the South China Sea. If such conflicts were to escalate, a regional crisis would move from possible to probable.
7. Summary: The Philippines and the United States enjoy a special relationship because of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the US. This is why the United States stands ready to help the Philippines in a time of need or crisis. Natural disaster, insurgency, international crisis, and the presence of WMD or major toxic crisis could entail the invocation of MARO, and may involve the participation of an international coalition.

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