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determining decision making
decision making
determining decision making
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1. Decision-making On March 31, 1996 the Adventure Consultants and Mountain Madness teams led two of the largest commercial expeditions attempting to reach the summit of Mount Everest. Unfortunately, both of these expeditions would end in tragedy. The failure of these expeditions may be explained, at least partially, by poor decision making. Managers within an organization are tasked with the important responsibility of decision making. The outcomes of managerial decisions can have a serious impact on the organization, clients, shareholders, and even society at-large. In this case, the stakes were extremely high as the organization’s goal was to complete the challenging and dangerous feat of climbing Mt. Everest. The expedition leaders, Rob Hall and Scott Fischer, each made problematic decisions that eventually led to their own deaths and the deaths of three expedition members. Other members of the expeditions also exhibited decision making biases that influenced the outcome of this case as well. This section attempts to evaluate the biases that influenced the poor decisions leading to this horrific tragedy. Decision-making differs from the rational-model, which assumes managers make logical and objective decisions using complete information. Often managers face complex and changing environments that affect the decision-making process. Herbert Simon’s Normative Model provides a realistic framework for understanding how managers make decisions. He proposes decision makers are “bounded or restricted by a variety of constraints,” defining bounded rationality (text, p. 241). These constraints can include personality traits of the manager and internal and external resources. Hall and Fischer were faced with several constraint... ... middle of paper ... ...guard of a maximum 2:00 p.m. time limit was designed to motivate the climbers to reach the summit before a mandatory descent. The limit established a burden of responsibility for Hall and Fischer, as they both recognized the inherent difficulties for climbers to decide to turn around after exerting so much time, physical and mental effort, and significant amounts of money to achieve their goals. This was only human nature. In the end the escalation of commitment bias led Hall and Fischer to break their own time limit rule and allow the climbers to scale toward the summit well after 2:00 p.m. Many clients should have decided to, or been ordered to, turn around earlier due to their declining physical conditions. These biased decisions that were made late in the expedition, were the most egregious examples of flawed decision-making that led to a horrible tragedy.
Arising lethargic and groggy after their sleepless night at camp six, Mark Whetu and Mike Rheinberger were slow to dress, melt ice, and get out of the tent at three o’clock in the morning. They should have left at one at the latest but the wind was too gusty. Unfortunately, by the time they loaded their backpacks, strapped on their crampons and were ready to leave, it was three thirty. Mark, an experienced climber knew they wouldn’t summit before one p.m. but he had only been hired as a guide for Rheinberger, who, after seven tries at Mount Everest had still not been able to summit. For Rheinberger, descent was totally unacceptable. Too much labour, too many sleepless nights, and too many dreams had been invested to not summit. He couldn’t come back for another try next weekend. To go down now, would have raised one big question: what might have been?
In an effort to formulate the most appropriate decision making process it is important to examine the four different models available to the decision maker. Rational, bounded rationality, Intuitive and creative decision making are all effective paths toward achieving resolution and can be executed by different leadership styles. Looking at the problem facing the email blast procedure at Vail Health Foundation, rationality as a decision making model will garner the most effective results considering all the variables involved. To best examine the effectiveness of such a model it important to analyze the rational decision making approach.
One of the problems with strict behavioral theory is that it very much ignores the ‘human variable’. When we reduce things strictly to stimulus and response, we can easily forget that there are human feelings, thoughts, and cognitions that are involved in the expression of a behavior as well. In the case of Roger a behaviorist will take everything at face value. If Roger comes in and says he is having trouble studying, it is very likely that the behaviorist will agree with him based on the observable evidence and come up with a reinforcement contingency of some sort to correct his ‘problem’.
Everest is an unbelievable mountain that has taken the lives of a number of the greatest climbers in history. It was my job to ensure that clients make it up that treacherous mountain safely. My name is Rob Hall. I was the main guide and cofounder of a climbing company called Adventure Consultants. My friend, Gary Ball, and I used to be professional climbers. Together we succeeded in climbing to the highest summit on each of the seven continents in seven months. This was our greatest achievement. After this, we decided to start our own company guiding clients up large mountains. In May 1992, we successfully led six clients to the summit of Everest. Unfortunately, Gary died of cerebral edema in October 1993 during an attempt on the world’s sixth-tallest mountain. He died in my arms and the next day I buried him in a crevasse. Despite the pain that his death had caused me, I continued guiding for our company and eventually led thirty-nine climbers to the summit of Everest.
According to Buchanan and Huczynski (2013), an individual’s quality of decisions can be influenced by how they perceive the surrounding circumstances in a given situation. This process falls in the “rational decision-making model” whereby an individual rationalizes and makes a decision based on the rational circumstances. For example a manager might be required to make a decision on whether to punish or pardon an employee who has made an error but his decision is based on the circumstances surrounding the event. If two managers were to independently evaluate the situation, one person might decide to punish while another might decide to pardon because it will depend on the personal interpre...
What Shakespeare might call the fatal flaw of Fischer’s expedition seemed to be a collective lack of humility amongst his team, stemming of course from the top with Fischer himself, the “face” of the organization. Fischer was an ambitious man who was desperate to earn the respect of his peers, and came across as nothing short of overconfident when he was quoted in Krakauer's Into Thin Air as saying, "Experience is overrated. […] We've got the big E figured out, we've got it totally wired. […] (W)e've built a yellow brick road to the summit." (pp. 85-86) Even Fischer's experienced guide, Anatoli Boukreev, was not immune from pride, opting to make the climb without the use of supplemental oxygen, a decision that was not only completely unnecessary, but arguably ended up costing the lives of members of his team at the summit. Indeed, as Krakauer noted, there was a palpable lack of a team dynamic, a result of the Attraction-Selection-Attrition Theory; the team felt more like a bunch of individuals, all "in it for himself or herself." (Krakauer, p. 213) In a life or death situation, having a strong team dynamic is more important than ever. But Fischer was more interested in the parts, than the whole. As part of Fischer's ambition, he had made an effort to recruit high-profile clients, including a New York socialite who wrote for Allure magazine, and Krakauer himself, who could lend the expedition some heavy publicity, but brought very little by way of experience when it came to summiting a mountain as extreme as Everest.
A prominent difference between Rob Hall and Scott Fischer is their leadership styles. In particular, Hall’s leadership style compares to be considerably more stringent the Fischer’s. As Krakauer emphasizes, “. . . he poured over reams of computer print outs detailing logistical minutiae: menus, spare parts, tools, medicine . . . yak availability” (95). This evidence shows how planned out and particular Rob’s group is portrayed. Shown again here, “Hall ran the tightest, safest operation on the mountain. Bar none.” (353). His company is referred to as the safest on the mountain which cannot be obtained without many regulations that are strictly enforced. In much opposition, Fischer has dynamic and easy going leadership style. A basic representation of this is, “Fischer believed in giving his clients free reign to go up and down the mountain independently during the acclimatization period.” (141). I believe Fischer has good intentions, but when dealing with climbers of callow experience, more control should be necessary. A situation in which his lax leadership causes problems is how he never even vaguely establishes a turnaround time. It’s a surmise idea but if everyone on the mountain has been given a correct turnaround time, many lives may have been saved. Granted, Rob Hall never establishes a concrete turnaround time either. Rob’s uptight and Scott’s relaxed leadership styles is a noted difference between the two men.
Herbert Simon. 1976 [1945]. “The Psychology of Administrative Decisions.” Chapter 5 (pp. 79-109) from Administrative Behavior. New York: Free Press.
In dealing with most complex problems in today’s work environment, there may be more than one good answer to a problem. The question then becomes one of picking the best answer; this is called decision-making. Weighing the consequences of th...
Life is full of decisions. Some decisions are trivial. Should I choose paper or plastic at the grocery store? Which of the 31 flavors of ice cream should I pick? Other decisions are vital. Should I get married to her or should I take this new job? Your decisions may affect many people or only yourself. In this paper I will present a decision-making model. I will describe a decision that I made at work using this model and how critical thinking impacted that decision.
...s go about making judgments and choices. Both theories play an intrinsic role with behavioral decision making and have proven to be successful approaches for management (Shanteau, 2001).
Managers should understand an employee’s skills and abilities to make an informed decision on whether or not to hire him. Once hired a manager uses skills and abilities as a deciding factor for an employee’s job placement within the corporation. Secondly, an evaluation of an employee’s personality helps the manager in his leadership approach of that employee. Thirdly, perceptions can be the deciding factor of whether or not a candidate is hired and or promoted. An individual perceived as fitting in may be hired to negotiate business deals. Particularly, if the individual shows a favorable attitude through actions and deeds and has strong values and behaves
Furthermore, Hodgson and Drumond (2009) as cited in Francis-Smythe, et al. (2013) argues that some managers focuses only to one solution and incorporating them to different situations believing that every situation is the same. Hodgson and Drumond (2009) continues that some managers over commit to one problem for a longer period of time forgetting other important things to be done. So they rush and make urgent decisions without evaluating it. Another reason why managers made wrong decisions is that some incidents are unusual or evidences and facts are not complete during evaluation. Managers also used their past personal experiences in dealing with difficult situation believing that it will also resolve their current situation Francis-Smythe, et al.
Decision making is one of the most important aspects in life and work because of its strong link to success and effectiveness. Actually, successful people achieve their goals in life and work through effective and efficient decision making. The decision making process is usually guided by an individual’s beliefs, values, and attitudes as well concepts. While a person can use various concepts in making decisions, they should be very careful to select a concept that is effective and contributes to huge success. Nonetheless, these concepts exist to help an individual become a better decision maker in the world around him/her.
Facing a situation, you have to decide. For example, the fire surrounds you: What do you do? Jump through the windows and risk to kill yourself or to wait the firemen and risk to be burned to death if they come to late? Every decision that we make or don’t make shapes our future. Everyone tries to make good decisions. However, it is easy to overlook an important factor, miss a desirable option, or base the decision on unreliable information. In addition, fear of making a wrong choice can cause someone to postpone decisions, leading to miss opportunities. A businessperson must have the ability to make decisions under the pressure of time and circumstances. This ability needs a good knowledge of the decision making process.