Northern Virginia Case Study

In the early Republic, Virginia was the leading state, with the largest population, the greatest wealth, and the most illustrious political figures a state that seemed destined to lead and shape a nation. After the Revolutionary War, seven of the first dozen presidents hailed from Virginia. During the Civil War, Virginia had two great heroes, Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson, but they fought for their state rather than the larger nation. In the process, many of Virginia's mountain counties broke off and joined the Union as the separate state of West Virginia. The many federal employees in the bedroom communities of Northern Virginia, combined with workers in the metropolitan Hampton Roads region around Norfolk and Newport News. And the enfranchisement

The 21st century has tilted Virginia ever so slightly to the Democrats. Mark Warner won the governorship in 2001 after an intensive, 18-month campaign in rural Virginia in which he paid attention to the parts of the state not blessed by 1990s growth. Warner carried Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads area only narrowly, but he also carried non-urban Virginia. Warner's success represented the first of several Democratic breakthroughs, fueled in large part by the ethnic and generational diversification of populous Northern Virginia. While George W. Bush carried Northern Virginia in 2000, he lost it four years later, 51%-48%. The trend accelerated as Democrat Tim Kaine was elected governor in 2005 over Republican Jerry Kilgore, whose conservative stands were a tough sell in Northern Virginia as well as suburban Richmond and Hampton Roads. Three years later, Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964, and he did so by his national average of 53%-46%. To do it, his campaign masterfully registered African-American voters all over the state, as well as new, young voters in Northern Virginia and college