New York City Crime Case Study

Kelly Duffe

Mr. Digiovanni

November 25, 2014

Crime Decline in New York City There are many different theories that have developed to explain the steep decline in crime that began in the 1990’s following decades of the highest crime rates in history. There have been numerous studies and forums to gather, discuss, and interpret data. The one consensus among them all is that there is no easy answer to the question- why has the crime rate dropped? Some of the many factors that have been considered as possible contributors to the decline include- demographics, the drug market, the economy, increased policing efforts, incarcerations, handguns, lead paint and legalized abortion. One common point that most researchers, law enforcement experts and

During those years, the group most likely to commit violent crimes - 18 to 24 years- olds- were declining as a percentage of the population, and, consequently violent crimes declined. Demographics alone are not a reliable factor for the decline in violent crime though, because the crime surge of the late 1980s and early 1990s occurred while the size of the group most likely most likely to commit those types of crimes was decreasing. The demographic analysis did not take into account the role that crack, guns and gangs would have on the youth offenders beginning in the

He stated, “ Gasoline lead may explain as much as 90 percent of the rise and fall of violent crime all over the past half century.” Drum references work done by Rick Nevin, a consultant working on a study for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Mr. Nevin determined that because the number of cars on the road using leaded fuel between the 1940s and 1970s was increasing, there were more lead emissions. During that period the crime rate rose dramatically. Once unleaded gasoline replaced leaded gasoline, and emissions plummeted, the crime rate began to