Market Weekly Analysis

852 Words4 Pages
Actually, not much happened on Friday, but the title symbolizes the week as a whole. Usually, Friday the 13th doesn't live up to its gloomy reputation and is bullish, but not last week; it tried to turn, but sold off into the close. As expected, last week, the averages fell out of a rising wedge, thereby ending another attempt to rally out of the pit left by the 05/06/10 flash-crash. We have had two attempts now, both ending in a weekly Engulfing-Bear, as did the major rally itself from 03/09/09. As has become commonplace, there was a 9/1-down-volume plunge, this one on Wednesday. Note that in the Bull Market, there were 7 Engulfing-Bull patterns and nary a negative one! What is new is that on Thursday, we saw the first Hindenburg Omen since 2008. For confirmation, we need at least one more observation in the next 30 days. All major declines in the past few decades have experienced a confirmed Hindenburg Omen near the top, The lack of confirmation for now is similar to the Dow Theory sell on 06/29/10; the averages have yet to fall 16% from the top. That would confirm the sell and signal a Bear Market. OTHER MARKETS - In summary, the technical picture doesn't look good, yet of the sectors we follow closely, 3 of 6 are still on a buy; Emerging Markets, Junk Bonds and Advancing Issues, a far from shabby trio. A rally from here could easily surpass Monday's high and signal a renewal of the Bull Market, a second leg as it were. We all go together. If we were to crash and burn, other countries should be showing weakness too. We could have used China-25, but here, we present one of the markets we follow, Germany. Lately, we have been hearing that Europe, subtracting the PIIGs and the UK, has been forging ahead. Well for Europe, t... ... middle of paper ... ...e to buyers' incentives, it also showed that consumers are shying away from most other purchases. Some decent news came from the University of Michigan/Reuters survey of Consumer Sentiment for the first part of August. It showed consumers are slightly more optimistic. An Index based on the survey came in at 69.6, slightly above analysts' estimates and up from July's 67.8. THIS WEEK - Today's quarterly, earnings reports: Agilent Tech, Lowe's, Sysco and Urban Outfitters. Tomorrow: Abercrombie & Fitch, Home Depot, Saks, Wal-Mart's and Analog Devices. Wednesday: BJ's, Chico's, Target, Applied Materials, Brocade Comm., Hot Topic and Limited Brands. Thursday: Dick's, Dollar Tree, GameStop, Stein Mart, Yingli Green Energy Holding, Aeropostale, Blue Coat Systems, Dell, The Gap, Hewlett-Packard, Intuit, Marvell Technology and Salesforce.com. Friday: AnnTaylor and Hormel.
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