The Kelly Criterion or sometimes called a Kelly bet is a formula used to decide the optimal sized stake of the bank to bet on a certain outcome. The way the Kelly Criterion works is that if one believes to have an edge over the bookmakers odds for a certain outcome one applies the kelly formula to calculate how much of their bank to stake and then do this for a series of bets resulting in a profit. Many argue the Kelly strategy is the strongest strategy among all betting strategies in the long term. The Kelly Criterion was designed in 1956 cite{kelly}, originally used to bet on an event where the probability of the winning and losing are the same and could be repeated again and again like a biased coin toss. Similar to the Kelly criterion, …show more content…
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subsection{Fractional Kelly Criterion}
Caution must be taken when dealing with the Kelly criterion because it is easy to misjudge the edge possessed over the bookmaker. Misjudging an edge could be costly and potentially cost the entire bank. It is common not to use the suggested stake sizing produced from the Kelly Criterion as people want to reduce risk and also they take into consideration that the edge they have calculated may have been overestimated. vspace{12pt}
Fractional Kelly Criterion is using the conventional Kelly Criterion to calculate the sizing of stakes, but just taking a fraction of the percentage of your bank calculated. One can use any fraction as it depends on personal preference. Using the Fractional Kelly Criterion will provide profit slower than the standard Kelly Criterion but reduces the risking or losing money from the bank.vspace{12pt}
section{Poisson Distribution}
The Poisson distribution will be used in the next section when predicting results and considering the goal expectancies for both the home and away teams. The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that counts the number of occurrences of an event within a time interval. It was named after Siméon Denis the french
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Remember, even if the bookmakers can be out-performed, the bookmakers margin must be taken into consideration.vspace{12pt}
Probabilities will be forecasted for the outcomes of football matches from the English Premier League for the current season, 2015-2016. 83 matches will be used over a nine game week period from February 2nd to the 3rd of April. An algorithm constructed shall be applied to the matches to produce the forecasts. vspace{12pt}
The Brier scores and Logarithmic scores will be calculated for the gathered predictions, to assess how accurate the forecasts are, also comparing the difference between the two scoring rules. Additionally, Kelly bets will be applied to the predictions to decide how much should be bet on an outcome or whether it is favourable to not bet at all.vspace{12pt}
Firstly decided were the different factors to consider when calculating odds for football matches. vspace{12pt}
egin{itemize} item Home Team Goal
is based on actual events, which helps in showing the accuracy of the events. The
Did you know If your children watch football matches on live television they also consumed around 50 separate episodes of sports betting marketing from television and stadium ads, to footy jumpers and even the live commentary.
Sabermetrics, as defined by Bill James, one of the founding fathers of sabermetric analysis of statistics, in his interview on Think Tank with Ben Wattenberg, is “the search for objective knowledge about baseball.” The general principles of the statistical analysis philosophy revolve around the goals of the hitters and the team to produce runs and win games respectively. The rise of sabermetrics has come around fairly recently after Michael Lewis’s 2003 book, Moneyball, and the subsequent movie of the same name, starring Brad Pitt, which told the story of the Oakland A’s and general manager Billy Beane’s quest for postseason success with a relat...
“Serious sport is war minus the shooting” (Orwell, 1945). In this respect the Oakland A’s guerilla warfare like tactics helped achieve their ascendance through the MLB. Bill James’s Sabermetrics was used to accomplish this. It works on the basis of studying player performance data to guide player recruitment, valuation and field tactics. Billy Beane, manager of the Oakland A’s, saw his monetarily weak team in need of regeneration and so adopted the system as a ‘David strategy’ for the A’s (Gray, 2006 cited in Gerrard, 2007). It is argued that atomistic striking and fielding sports are more conducive to this systematic approach, owing to the easily defined contributions of individual players (Gerrard and Howard, 2007). This essay will explore to what extent this form of metric can be applied to invasion sports, in particular football: a free flowing invasion sport and American football: a fragmented invasion sport . It will assess whether technology and concepts have reached the level so data analytics can be used to the same effect to that of atomistic striking games. Finally it will look into the cultural barriers and whether the industry wants to use this form analytics.
Prediction = = = = =
One of the single greatest measurable facets of professional sports is attendance. A sport’s popularity is in direct correlation to the number of people that will show up to watch that sport. Overall 2000 regular season attendance in Major League Baseball was a record 72,782,013 in 2,416 games for an average per game crowd of 30,125 whereas official overall paid attendance in the National Football League for the 2000 season was 16,387,289 in 248 games for an average per game crowd of 66,077. The average per game crowd is the measurable statistic due to the fact that the number of games in a regular season for baseball and football are very different. A NFL team plays a regular season schedule of 16 game however a MLB team plays a regular season schedule of 162 games so average attendance per game presents an accurate picture of popularity. Therefore, football appears to be more than twice as popular as baseball when measured by ...
Rivalries are common in sport, throughout the years people have witnessed great battles and games such as, Mohammed Ali versus George Foreman, New York Giants versus New York Jets, England versus Argentina, and the old firm derby Celtic versus Rangers. But nowadays, rivalries have tended to become more common in football. Football is one of the most watched sports in the world. In Europe it’s considered to be the biggest sport. However, one match that withstands the others is known as the “El Clasico”. Here stands two of footballs most powerful teams, Real Madrid versus Barcelona is known as the greatest sporting event in the world. Barcelona versus Real Madrid whom is not only about football, but also politics. Their clashes goes back in history, it was the royal team versus the peoples team. They both might be from Spain, and share the same country and currency, but their thinking and way of football is totally opposite of each other. In the 21st century, these two teams have tended to differentiate from each other a lot. The purpose of this essay is to compare these two teams within when it comes to history, economy and playing style.
Desbordes, Michel. "Measuring Fair Play And Planning Long Term." International Journal Of Sports Marketing & Sponsorship 15.2 (2014): 77. SPORTDiscus with Full Text. Web. 17 Feb. 2014.
The objective in Texas hold ‘em is the same as in other poker games, individuals compete for a certain amount of money or chips which the players decide themselves. The cards are dealt randomly and outside the control of the players by the dealer, each player attempts to control the amount of money in the pot based either on the hand they are holding, or on their prediction on which cards their opponents could hold.
It is used to measure the position of a firm in relation to its relative market share as well as its market growth. Based on this the situation where in all of the given four divisions of the firm are at different levels of performance can be evaluated in order to formulate a 5 year strategy plan. This can help in the creation of a portfolio where in returns are optimized by re investing in growth oriented sectors and divesting out of the sectors that are saturated and loss making for the firm.
Probability is always surrounding us from stock markets to the ever-simple heads or tails. This very complicated area of mathematics can be explained in a simpler way. It is how likely an event is to happen. The probability of an event will always be between 0 and 1. The closer it is to one, the more likely the event is to happen.
The main purpose of this investigation is to determine whether there is a relationship between successes of clubs in the English Premier League and the amount of money spent on their players. The type of data that will be collected is the weekly salary of the 11 starting players of each club in the premier league and the ranking of every team in the premier league this season. The data for this study and the rankings of the teams are the ones of November 4th 2013, and may be subject to c...
Tennis is a universal sport. Much like any other sport, tennis has its own unique set of terminology and scoring system. During a match that is broadcasted on TV viewers are usually given an opportunity to see a varying amount statistics. These statistics would the number of aces, first and second serve percentages, number of winners and errors, and so on. The average viewer would only go as far as knowing who won, but these statistics provide a much deeper into many underlying aspects of the match such as how a player won and the chances of winning. Meanwhile, the construction of probability formulas is present due the scoring system being hierarchically structured. For instance, points are gained throughout the service games; these points are which are nested within sets, as well as within the match. Thus, tennis is a game of mathematics that is highly involved with the chances of players winning the match
The purpose of this paper is to explain the advances being made in technology and algorithms in helping advance the accuracy of forecasting. It will contrast the forecasting methods of several decades ago with forecasting methods in use today. In discussing how errors can accumulate over time and providing simple mathematical formulas as examples, this paper intends to show how the repetition of minor errors can affect the accuracy of weather predictions.
There are many deciding factors that can confirm that the World Cup is truly the biggest sporting event in the world. A massive amount of money is invested into the World cup every time it comes around. Three billion has al...