Importance Of Hidden Traps In Decision Making

Introduction
Managers and executives make decisions on a daily basis, and not all bad decision making arises from lack of correct information, or an error in the actual technical process of decision making which would imply incompetence on the part of the executive. Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa (1989), posit that bad decisions, especially catastrophic ones, can be made by the hidden traps present in our subconscious mind, which influence the decision-making process without the decision maker being aware of it. Awareness of these traps in decision-making and knowing how to avoid them are key towards avoiding bad outcomes in complex decision making processes.

The Hidden Traps
One of the well -known traps is judging distance by a mental process

The problem is relying more than necessary of first impressions, which could be unreliable, or have changed, but the subconscious mind ignores these possibilities. Anchoring leads to grave errors in forecasting where analysts can overemphasize the importance of past trends, while not paying sufficient attention to current market research. A person seeking advice from a colleague or consultant might anchor them by providing too much information, as a result the advice turns out to a reinforcement of the person’s thoughts and beliefs. The way to avoid anchoring is to be aware of its insidious nature, and to look at a problem from different perspectives. A good practice is to thoroughly analyze a problem first before seeking counsel, to prevent being anchored by the advice. One needs to be open minded and accept that other’s points of view can be equally valid – this is a problem of ego that prevents an anchored decision maker in considering opposing points of

The more complicated a decision-making process is, the more unknowns we are dealing with, requiring us to make more assumptions and estimates, leading us to frame questions in potentially different ways, requiring the inputs of several different people. Each one of these steps are prone to the psychological biases and traps outlined earlier and can cause a decision-maker that isn’t aware of the psychological pitfalls to subconsciously make a poor