Forecasting

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Forecasting

In my assignment I will forecast the third and the fourth quarter revenues of Consolidated Edison Company for the year 1996. The company’s main fields are electricity, gas and steam supplying. In the case of every company it is important to forecast the future revenues to be able to calculate the company’s expected profits. That is the situation in this case as well, so I must do my job as perfect as I can.

I got the past eleven years data, from which I can analyse the whole situation and which I can use to predict for the future. To make the forecast more accurate I can use the actual quarterly revenues.

Quarterly revenues for Consolidated Edison Company

($ million), 1985-1995

Year March 31. June 30. September 30. December 31.

1985 1441 1209 1526 1321

1986 1414 1187 1411 1185

1987 1284 1125 1493 1192

1988 1327 1102 1469 1213

1989 1387 1218 1575 1371

1990 1494 1263 1613 1369

1991 1479 1330 1720 1344

1992 1456 1280 1717 1480

1993 1586 1396 1800 1483

1994 1697 1392 1822 1461

1995 1669 1460 1880 1528

1996 1867 1540

Source:The Value Line Investment Survey (New York: Value Line, 1990, 1993, 1996) p.170.

There are several different methods, which can be used by forecasters. For this case I will test the naïve, the moving averages, the exponential smoothing, the double moving averages, the deseasonalisation, the linear

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