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Monte Carlo Simulation strengths and weaknesses
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Exploration Feasibility Study of Kansas’s Central Uplift for Intended use in Stochastic Decision Tree Analysis in New Drilling Programs
Prepared for:
A.C.T. Operating Company
Midland, Texas
NOTE- PLACE A TTU SEAL IN THE BACKGROUND
ABSTRACT
My master’s project consisted of an exploration program feasibility study of Kansas’s Central Uplift. The purpose of the study was to see if drilling is justifiable in this region after analyzing Kansas’s Geological Survey lease production database. The Central Uplift has three main reservoir targets (Pennsylvanian age –Lansing/Kansas City, and Ordovician-Arbuckle). Some fields in the area have been producing since pre-1960s. From a project analysis stand point, decision tree methods aide in assigning value to different outcomes from drilling (i.e. dry hole, excellent or poor well) and incorporates those values to a project worth or NPV (net present value). As a classical approach, deterministic approached utilized discrete values (high, medium, and low) in assigning success and failure rates for exploration outcomes. My analysis involved using a stochastic approach. Instead of looking at the hard data from one scenario, I could take the entire data set and fit a distribution to it, then run a Monte Carlo simulator for 10000 iterations. The outputs from the simulator better enable me to assess oil recovery given certainty values from a planned drilling program. Basically, at the end of the day, I could go to management and tell them with this drilling package size you can expect an ultimate oil recovery with a given level of certainty for this area.
Following up on the project for the entire Kansas Central Uplift, conclusions and recommendations were given. D...
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...w from Hubbert's Peak. New York: Hill and Wang, 2006. Print.
Harbaugh, John W., and Michel Ducastaing. Historical Changes in Oil-Field Populations as a Method of Forecasting Field Sizes of Undiscovered Populations: A Comparison of Kansas, Wyoming, and California. University of Kansas, 1980. Lawrence: Kansas Geological Survey, 1981. Print. Subsurface Geology Series 5
Newell, David, Lynn Watney, Stephen Cheng, and Richard Brownrigg. Stratigraphic and Spatial Distribution of Oil and Gas Production in Kansas. University of Kansas, 1987. Lawrence: Kansas Geological Survey, 1987. Print. Subsurface Geology Series 9
Watney, Lynn, and Chandra Nautiyal. Depositional Sequence Analysis and Sedimentologic Modeling for Improved Prediction of Pennsylvanian Reservoirs. University of Kansas, 1993. Lawrence: Kansas Geological Survey, 1993. Print. Grant No.: DE-FG22-90BC14434
Van Staal, C.R., Whalen, J.B., Valverde-Vaquero, P., Zagorevski, A., and Rogers, N. (2009) Pre-Carboniferous, Episodic Accretion-Related, Orogenesis along the Laurentian Margin of the Northern Appalachians. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, vol. 327, p. 271-316.
The Starved Rock Member of the Saint Peter Sandstone is preserved as a northeast-southwest trending belt of strata that is ...
Van Siclen, D. "The Houston Fault problem." Institute of Professional Geologists. Ed. 3rd Annual Meeting. Texas, 1967. p.9-31.
"NPS: Nature & Science» Geology Resources Division." Nature.nps.gov » Explore Nature. Web. 05 Dec. 2011. .
Drilling for oil in Alaska will cause the environment and animals to suffer. Oil drilling in Alaska started in 1980 when America found itself in an oil crisis. So a solution for this crisis was to start drilling for oil in other locations. The largest oil field in North America was in Prudhoe Bay on the north coast of Alaska. Prudhoe Bay would soon account for 20% of all domestic U.S. oil production. Despite the oil crisis in 1980, Congress formed a wildlife reserve just east of Prudhoe Bay. it was called The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge(ANWR). Document A.
The Powder River Basin is located in southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming. According to Luppens et al. (2008), the Powder River Basin is approximately 22,000 square miles in area. The basin itself trends in a north-to-north west direction. The eastern side of the basin dips gently westward, whereas the western side dips much more steeply towards the east. This forms an asymmetrical syncline with the synclinal axis lying closer to the western margin of the basin (USGS, 2013). The Powder River Basin is structurally separated from other basins by Laramide style tectonic landforms, where large portions of Archean basement rock were thrust upwards during the late Cretaceous and Paleocene (Flores, 2004). In Wyoming the Powder River Basin is surrounded by the Bighorn Mountains to the west, the Black Hills to the East, and the Laramie Mountains, Casper Arch, And Hartville Uplift to the South. To the north, in the Montana portion of the Powder River Basin, the Miles City Arch separates the basin from the Williston Basin in North Dakota. The coal beds that were deposited in the basin are mainly sub-bituminous but can also be lignite in rank and range from Cretaceous to Eocene in age. There are four formations that contain coal beds in the Powder River Basin and include the Mesaverde Formation, the Lance Formation, the Fort Union Formation, and the Wasatch Formation. Each of these formations contains several different coal ...
Plummer, C.C., McGeary, D., and Carlson, D.H., 2003, Physical geology (10th Ed.): McGraw-Hill, Boston, 580 p.
This area is known as the Permian Basin. Most of the oil is being produced from rocks
In order to find the benefits and hazards of mountaintop removal mining in West Virginia, I used the various resources and gathered information from both sides of the questions posed, including economical benefits such as earnings, and environmental hazards such as ongoing experiments to clean up acid mine drainage. And some opinions written and expressed in newspaper articles and magazines.
Schiebout, J.A., Chesser, K., Estepp, J.D., Langston, W., Standhart, B., Warnoch, B., 1986, Geology of the Big Bend Area and Solitario Dome, Texas: West Texas Geological Society Field Trip, 166 pp.
Oil provided new fuel for transportation and manufacturing, even railroads were able to convert to oil. Oil helped manufacturing plants and farms move to a cheaper source of energy. Another significant factor of oil is that it helped encourage automobile production as well as roads. The production of the Interstate highway led to the movement of people and goods (Champagne, Harpham 13). Rapid industrialization of the Gulf Coast region sparked. By 1929 in Harris County, 27 percent of all manufacturing employees worked in refineries. By 1940 the capacity of the refineries had increased fourfold. The oil and gas industries carried a boom-and-bust mentality (Oliena 1). The economy flourish at times and failed other times, because the prices would rise and fall. When new oil was discovered in a particular place it brought about more people, overcrowding the schools and new housing. Yet a couple years later the town could experience a bust creating poverty and making the town a ghost town. The oil and gas industry transformed the government and its role with the economy. The Texas Railroad Commission was extended to regulate energy and to promote well-spacing rules. Higher education benefitted through the oil and gas industry ( Munch, Francis, and Rundell 604). In 1923 oil was discovered in the West Texas Permian Basin on university land. The Permanent University Fund was split up between the
Valley Region of the Appalachian Mountains and Subsequent Karst Regions in the State of Virginia
Harris, Ann G., Esther Tuttle, and Sherwood D. Tuttle. "Katmai National Park and Preserve." Geology of National Parks. 4th ed. Dubuque, IA: Kendall/Hunt Pub., 1990. 441-48. Print.
In the west, the Dakota sandstones are reminiscent of the transgression and regression of the Epicontinental Sea. Tectonic deformations and erosion continued as we see in folded and faulted rocks in the Rocky Mountains. Bentonite, present in that part of North America, proves the active volcanism of the time.
The journey of my decision analysis learning process has been a roller coaster ride. While I enjoyed reading, understanding and learning about the various methodology and aspects of decision analysis, I also find myself stressed, frustrated and ready to give up. For me, the concept about what is decision analysis, the utility of decision analysis, and the topics on decision bias, ethics, complexity and controversy of decision analysis make sense to me as I understood what they are and how they can impact a decision making process. Quantitatively, while I enjoy experimenting and learning the R, Rattle and Excel Decision Tree Plan, statistically, I am frustrated as I am unable to come up with the correct answers when it comes to the quantitative models and calculations such as the probability matrices, binomials, conditional probability, and Markov modeling. Learning the functionalities and seeing an outcome from the R software and knowing what an excel can do to a set of data is intriguing yet exciting to me,