Essay On Earthquake Prediction

Satisfactory Essays
Question: Research the current state of earthquake prediction. Have we made any progress in recent years? Are other countries making progress? How far away are seismologists from being able to accurately predict earthquakes? Go beyond what was discussed in class.

The Current State of Earthquake Prediction

For my research project I have chosen the topic of earthquake prediction and the current state and accuracy at which this is possible. Earthquake prediction is a very tricky business in the first place. Unlike predicting a volcanic eruption, predicting and earthquake does not generally come with the precursors that tell us that one is coming. Seismic activity is very random and for the most part comes without warning. There have been several attempts over the years and little to none of them have been successful in accurately predicting the event.

The first thing I would like to do is explain the current process that we use to attempt to predict these natural disasters. The act of predicting an earthquake is normally described as “as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of a future earthquake within stated limits.” (Earthquake Prediction) Now this is also a completely different process than earthquake forecasting which is more so distinguished as the general assessment of the hazards that an earthquake presents within a given area, including the magnitude and frequency that is associated with that earthquake. We have in place, in a lot of countries, and early warning system, but this can also be distinguished from predicting earthquakes because of the fact that these systems only give about a couple of seconds of warning compared to what we would like it to be. When we speak about the prediction of ...

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... of about 2.5-3 magnitude that ended up happening on August 1 at a magnitude of 2.6. Since then the account has been discredited since no other earthquake has ever been predicted in the same area.

Overall, the area of seismology has made some significant progress in the last 50 years. Although no scientist has been able to say without a doubt when a specific event will occur, seismologists have made a great deal of progress that could lead to a future of being able to accurately predict earthquakes. We would all like to see this in the nearest future, and the reality is that it could very well be within our lifetime. Earthquakes are a very regular occurrence on Earth since the plates beneath our feet are always moving. Through my research I can say that this field will continue to develop at a rapid rate until the problem of predicting earthquakes is solved.
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