The definition of the word chance is commonly defined by society (T1 – Synecdoche) as “the possibility of something happening”. We measure chance by creating a determination of the likelihood that an occurrence will happen, as expressed typically by putting numbers together into a fraction.
Probability and chance is apart in our everyday lives. Every day we are making decisions and judgment based on the outcomes of chance and probability. Chance is derived from chance games played in the classical era. In the sixteenth and seventeenth century, people needed help with their gambling skills, and advanced in chance.
Football teams begin the game by putting their fate into the hands of a chance; a coin is used to represent it (SP1). One team decides to place their bet on one side; the other, the corresponding side (SP2) (for the sake of this essay the two sides will be referred to as heads and tails) (S1 – Parenthesis). Now supposing that there are no other variables acting on the coin besides the toss, such as the coin being weighted on one side, the chances of that coin landing on either side are exactly 50/50, or when expressed in terms of just one side the chances are 1/2. The side of the coin that is facing up after the toss represents the winning party, and both parties have had their fates decided. But, let’s say now that the coin that was flipped lands facing heads up. And when flipped again, lands heads up. And again, and again, and again (S2 – Anaphora). While this is happening the chance of the coin landing heads up each time decreases little by little, starting at 1/2, then going to 1/4, then 1/8, and will continue to halve no matter how many times the coin is flipped. Now suppose the coin is flipped an infinite amount of...
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...tificial intelligence, and also in philosophy. In relation to risk, probability is used to figure of the chance that taking risk will pay off. If there is a high possibility for example, the probability is closer to one, the risk will pay off, and then taking that risk or chance is worth it for the reward. However on the other side, if there is a low possibility, in example closer to zero, then taking the risk is not worth it, and it will probability leave to a loss.
All in all, people use chance in many situations, when deciding what kind of weather to prepare for, when to buy or not to buy a stock, when to swing that bat, or when to bet in gambling. Probability helps people understand which choice is safe and which choices are risky. When someone has the fluent knowledge of probability, they can learn about the likelihood of future events, and prepare accordingly.
“Why We Keep Playing the Lottery”, by freelance journalist Adam Piore takes a very in depth look as to what drives millions of Americans to continually play the lottery when their chances of winning are virtually non-existent. He believes that because the odds of winning the lottery are so small that Americans lose the ability to conceptualize how unlikely it is that they are going to win, and therefore the risk of playing has less to do with the outcome, and more to do with hope that they are feeling when they decide to play. It 's essentially, "a game where reason and logic are rendered obsolete, and hope and dreams are on sale." (Piore 700) He also states that many Americans would rather play the lottery thinking ,"boy, I could win $100 million" (705) as opposed to thinking about all of the money they could lose over time.
Epstein, Richard A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic. New York: Academic, 1977. Print.
Chance. 50/50. 1:2. Odds. These terms are familiar in gambling. Bet it all give it a shot. Is it worth the consequences? Are the problems worth the rewards? Imagine a gamble between life and death, war and peace. Would it be worth the destruction to have your way? What would you do to keep a competitor out of the game? Going neck and neck to find a way around combat. Would the world be the same? What would happen if you lost? When tension between World War II grows, a gamble for nuclear arms rises, becoming the cold war.
The Family Medical Leave Act of 1993 (FMLA) was established to provide employees with ability to take a leave from work for personal or family health issues. The Act lays out specific circumstance in which an employee may take up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave within a 12 month period. Under the law, employees may request a leave for personal health issues, to care for a child, spouse or parent with serious health issues, birth or care of a child during the first year or for newly placed adoptions within one year. Employees are covered under FMLA if the employer has 50 or more employees and the employee has worked for the employer for at least 12 months. The employee must submit a written request for FMLA and provide documentation supporting their request. Once approved, the employee may take up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave. Upon return the employee is guaranteed a job, if the employer had to fill their position out of business necessity, the employer must provide the employee with a position with equal responsibility and pay.
We see a very disturbing ending in the Shirley Jackson’s, The Lottery where the reader believes that the lottery in mention is solely a monetary game of chance, like in our lives presently. However,
Interprofessional Practice (IPP) is the ability to provide a comprehensive health care service to all patients. Healthcare providers achieve this joining together and working collaboratively to deliver quality care across a range of healthcare settings. An interprofessional setting may offer several benefits to patients, including improved access to healthcare, less conflict and tension amongst caregivers, improved use of clinical resources, better retention of staff, better results for patients in particular those with chronic diseases. (http://www.ontarioshores.ca/about_us/our_approach/interprofessional/). This paper will discuss the benefits of an interprofessional practice to the patient.
First we are going to talk about probability theory, which has to do with mathematics and analysis of random phenomena. You are probably used to putting the number of outcomes over the total amount of the object or total amount what you have. An example is, if you have a normal dice and you want the probability of rolling an odd number, you would take the total amount of odd numbers (3) and put that over the total (6) amount of numbers on the dice like so 3/6 which you can also reduce it to ½ because 3 is half of 6. This theory has been around since the sixteenth century and started off as the outcome you would get in a game, which was created by Pierre de Fermat, Blaise Pascal and Gerolamo Cardano. Later on in the seventeenth century Christiaan Huygens published a book on the subject.
In America, it is becoming more difficult to achieve the American Dream. The American Dream is based on the idea that people can move higher up on the social scale, as long as they work hard work to accomplish their goal. The American Dream is also based on the belief that the social class you’re born into, is not the social class you have to stay in. In other words, everyone can move up in their lifetime if they work hard. However this is not true today, and people are not moving positively up the social class ladder. It has become a chain reaction of people with a college education vs. people without a college education. People with a college degree, or who have parents that have received a college degree, are significantly more likely to be in the upper class in America today, giving them an unfair advantage.
Many theories of logic use mathematical terms to show how premises lead to conclusions. The Bayesian confirmation theory relates directly to probability. When applying this theory, a logician must know the probability of a given situation, have a conditional rule, and then he or she must apply the probability when the conditional rule is applied. This theory is used to determine an outcome based on a given condition. The probability of a given situation is x, when y occurs, or the probability is z if it does not occur. If y occurs, then the outcome of the given would be x. For example, if there is a high probability that a storm will occur if a given temperature drops and there is no temperature change, then it will most likely not rain because the temperature did not change (Strevens, 2012). By using observational data such as weather patterns, a person can arrive at a logical prediction or conclusion that will most likely come true based...
During the Great Depression, while the competitors were cutting costs and reusing outdated designs, Kress was expanding and building more elaborate stores than their previous ones. The architecture was referred to as an “emporium” evoking an elegant atmosphere more suited to a fine cloth or furniture store in New York rather than the five & dime stores dotting small town America. Many wonder what the driving force was behind these design decisions, especially during a national time of economic recession. Perhaps simply to outpace the competition, but perhaps more importantly Samuel Kress was an avid art collector and a proponent of public art enhancing a community. In this way the Kress legacy of the brand became more than a retail business, it became a symbol of small town civic pride.
Chance's origins lie in obscurity, as much to himself as to the reader. He was orphaned at an age too young for him to have any memory of his biological parents. His sole custodian is the figure he knows only as "the Old Man," who has provided for him all his life. Chance takes care of the Old Man's garden, but rarely interacts with the man himself. His meals are prepared by one of the other servants in the Old Man's employ. Aside from working in the garden, eating, and sleeping, Chance's only pastime is watching television. It is TV alone that has given him whatever perception or understanding of culture and the normal commerce of society he may have.
Probability is always surrounding us from stock markets to the ever-simple heads or tails. This very complicated area of mathematics can be explained in a simpler way. It is how likely an event is to happen. The probability of an event will always be between 0 and 1. The closer it is to one, the more likely the event is to happen.
Ever since the original study by Tversky and Kahnerman in 1983, it has been assumed that human reasoning prefers association of terms in lieu of mathematical probabilities in these situations. There is debate, however, as to whether this is a fallacy i...
Choices: we all make them daily. Every decision that we make and every action we take has a consequence. At times, our expected consequences and the actual outcome of our decision can differ, from minimal to the extreme. Thomas Nagel wrote on the moral aspects of assigning blame or praise on the actions or consequence of an agent, even if the agent was not in full control over the action or consequence. This theory is known as moral luck. Nagel attempts to assign luck into some objects in determining the outcomes of actions. I disagree with his interjection of luck into the discussion, as I do not believe in chance.
This approach to decision-making may be easy for some people and difficult for others. For example, a Christian might use their faith in God and his teachings when reasoning. Expected Utility Theory has been used to explain the process of decision-making. This is the idea that people simply observe the decision, identity the value of each decision and choose the option that will result in the maximum level of the desired outcome. A common explanation for why people sometimes find this approach difficult can be explained by the prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky). This can be summarised as the belief that people naturally tend to evaluate the psychological aspects of a decision rather than make a quick decision on what is wholly rational. For example, gambling. If someone was offered a role of a dice for anything under a 5 to gain £100, but would lose £50 if it was a 5 or above, people are more likely to turn down the offer as there is a reasonable risk that they may lose their money. This is known as loss aversion. Generally, I don’t think advanced training in areas such as statistics, economics and psychology would help people to make decisions that are more economically rewarding as I believe that autonomy is innate in human beings, therefore, I think people would decide what they truly wish to. However, I do think that people may use this advanced training, when they are