Epidemiology Lab Report

Utilizing Epidemiology to Understand the Spread of Disease

Akaninyene Ruffin

Abstract

The interconnectedness of today’s world has prompted a quick spread of a litany of infectious diseases. In this experiment, students mimicked epidemiologists in a quest to understand the spread of disease and find patient zero. They traveled the room and exchanged the fluids of their test tubes with their classmates. Afterwards, phenolphthalein solution was added to each test tube to see which students had come in contact with sodium hydroxide; 60% of the class was infected. By modeling a spread of infection in a closed population, students were able to see how rapidly diseases can spread.

Introduction

Epidemiology is the study of the determinants of health

These researchers endeavored to discover whether the Zika outbreak could be adequately tracked and predicted through topological data. The study briefly described other models that have been used to comprehend and deter the spread of the Zika Virus. These include a SEIR model based on fundamental epidemic theories based on the transmission rates of vector diseases, an ARIMA model which utilizes the correlation between weather changes and dengue surveillance to project Zika, and stochastic models that ascertained the areas in Texas that had the highest risk of transmission in Texas. While all of these models had their merits, the study details the ways in which their dependence on things like reporting rates, vector abundance, and time-series data. The model used by these epidemiologists utilized the data established through mosquito population topology to predict the number of Zika virus cases in Brazil. The study utilized H0 data that signified

In order to narrow down to Patient Zero, one must see which positive individuals had 3 positive contacts. This is clearly seen in Data Table Two. The test tube number from table 1 was replaced by the positive or negative status of the that test tube at the end of the three rounds. The individuals with the most positive contacts are patient zero.

Individual 1 and Individual 7 were the only two individuals that had three positive contacts, therefore one of these two individuals must be patient Zero. Contact between already infected people does not increase the rate of infection. Contact between infected people only lessens the chances of interactions with non-infected people which could spread the disease. This is the premise behind quarantining people with communicable diseases. When all infected people are separated away from the general population, the opportunity for the disease to rapidly spread decreases. Because there are four more patients that would need to be infected, it would take at least two more rounds for the infection to spread amongst the entire