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validity of efficient market hypothesis
validity of efficient market hypothesis
efficient market hypothesis evidence
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Introduction
Efficiency of financial markets is one of the main topic in finance area for researching and testing. Many economist has done lots of research on this important area and intent to find out a best way to illustrate the outcome to define the financial market. In recent years, the research and the testing has become the basis of the investors to examine the investment stages. This move is important since the market can change in any time.
The concept of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is defined as there are many potential investors in the market who try to compete with each other by predicting the future of the stocks of the company or any other financial securities, which the information of the company were available for all the investors and the price of the securities and the stocks are reflected to the information that the company disclosure correctly. (Eugene. F , 1965)
Efficient Market Hypothesis can be divided into three different stages, weak form of efficiency, semi-strong form of efficiency and strong form of efficiency. By examine the researches and testing, this essay aims to compare three different form of efficiency market hypothesis and the empirical studies which have conducted to assess the validity of each forms.
In this essay, it will contain three main part to illustrate the researches and compare between the three forms of efficiency included the Random Walk Theory. In first, we will examine about the Random Walk theory and see how it will affect the stock price in weak form of efficient markets hypothesis. Follow by the evaluation of the empirical studies in the weak form of efficiency.
Secondly, explain and compare the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis differs from the weak ...
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However, insider trading is illegal in recent year which restricted by the law since it is not fair to the other small investors. (Seyhun, 1986)
Conclusion
Efficient Market Hypothesis is an important step on predicting the future price of the stocks or securities in short-term. By applying the new information in order to react to the business can help to identify the direction of the stock price and gain return. Although the result may fail the investor in long-run but for the investors who intend to invest in short-run are still useful. React to the favourable or unfavourable information for the company can help to adjust the overprice or under priced stocks in order to maintain the balance in the market. Since the EMH can still be the basis of the prediction of the stock price, EMH is still viable for the investors to study and examine before the investment.
Fama propounded EMH, in 1965, stating that provided all available information is used, market prices will reflect reasonably accurate approximations of the inherent present value of securities; the employment of this information would render agents’ actions rational. Ball expands on this by suggesting that competitive markets lead to costs falling in line with the employment of information.
Financial market link to the real economy. Very often the markets are sensitive to many variables for example of most efficient managers with a SAT score above 1420, however according to “Chevalier and Ellison's manager characteristics model can explain only about 5% of the total variation in mutual fund returns” (James L. Davis), because the style-adjusted passive benchmark model has proved to be more efficient in work of the average mutual fund than the active one (James L. Davis).
I introduce the research result on the market volatility and efficiency in the Korean market. Two approaches have been used to analyze the effect of index futures trading on stock market volatility and market efficiency. One approach is to compare the change on stock price volatility and efficiency before and after futures trading is introduced. The other approach is to compare stock price volatility differences and efficient trading between KOSPI 200 stocks and non-KOSPI 200 stocks.
Eugene Fama coined the term, efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the 1960s. There are three forms of the efficient market hypothesis: the weak, semi-strong and the strong form. The weak form of the EMH states that the past price and volume is indicated by current asset prices. The current market price of security is revealed by the information controlled by previous series of prices. "It is named weak form because the security prices are the most publicly and easily accessible pieces of information. It implies that no one should be able to outperform the market using something that "everybody else knows" (Han, 2008, ¶ 6).
Empirical studies of banking efficiency (see for example Karimzadeh, 2012) often measure each of these three types of efficiency. However, some scholars (see for example Sufian, 2011) have measured technical efficiency alone. Following Sufian’s methodological example, only the technical efficiency of private banks in Northern Cyprus will be measured in the current study.
The efficient market hypothesis has been one of the main topics of academic finance research. The efficient market hypotheses also know as the joint hypothesis problem, asserts that financial markets lack solid hard information in making decisions. Efficient market hypothesis claims it is impossible to beat the market because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information . According to efficient market hypothesis stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments . In reality once cannot always achieve returns in excess of average market return on a risk-adjusted basis. They have been numerous arguments against the efficient market hypothesis. Some researches point out the fact financial theories are subjective, in other words they are ideas that try to explain how markets work and behave.
Schwert, G.W. (2001). Anomalies and Market Efficiency. In: G. Constantinides et al. (Eds). Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Chapter 17. North Holland: Amsterdam.
1. Momentum: Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman; October 23, 2001 2. From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance: Robert J. Shiller, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1385; October, 2002 3. Behavioral Finance: Robert J. Bloomfield, Johnson School Research Paper Series #38-06; October, 2006 4. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work: Eugene F. Fama, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, No. 2, May, 1970 5. Naive Diversification Strategies in Defined Contribution Saving Plans: Shlomo Benartzi and Richard H. Thaler, The American Economic Review; March, 2001 6. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 2. ; March 1979
Andrew Lo, Market Efficiency: Stock Market Behavior in Theory and Practice, two volumes of the most important articles on the subject, including Eugene Fama's seminal 1970 review, Paul Samuelson's 1965 article and Fischer Black's 1986 article
Chapter 11 closes our discussion with several insights into the efficient market theory. There have been many attempts to discredit the random walk theory, but none of the theories hold against empirical evidence. Any pattern that is noticed by investors will disappear as investors try to exploit it and the valuation methods of growth rate are far too difficult to predict. As we said before the random walk concludes that no patterns exist in the market, pricing is accurate and all information available is already incorporated into the stock price. Therefore the market is efficient. Even if errors do occur in short-run pricing, they will correct themselves in the long run. The random walk suggest that short-term prices cannot be predicted and to buy stocks for the long run. Malkiel concludes the best way to consistently be profitable is to buy and hold a broad based market index fund. As the market rises so will the investors returns since historically the market continues to rise as a whole.
In turn everything in the present and the future is judged through the stocks as they hold a high importance in industrialized economies showing the healthiness of said countries economy. As investing discourages consumer spending over all decreases, it lead...
This form of analysis is used to predict which stock is valuable and has the potential to generate good returns.
Following the trend of economy, it is important to investors to understand that strong economy creates strong stock market. To elaborate further, as stock prices are increased by current and future expectations of earnings, thus without a strong economy it would be difficult for the companies to increase and sustain their earnings (Kong 2013). The economy development is usually calculated using the gross domestic product of a countries. On the other hand, a change is the stock price can also cause a major impact to the consumers and investors directly. Hence, a loss in confidence by investors can cause a downturn in consumer spending in the long term, which will also affect the economy’s output (Aysen 2011). The graph below shows the relationship of stock market price (KLCI) and the GDP of Malaysia in 2009. Thus, it can be concluded that the economy and the stock market has a positive relationship.
This paper will define and discuss five financial theories and how they impact business decisions made by financial managers. The theories will be the Modern Portfolio Theory, Tobin Separation Theorem, Equilibrium Theory, Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.
In the modern world, financial markets play a significant role, with huge volumes of everyday dealings. They form part of contemporary economic lifestyle and determine the level of success of many people. Humans have always been uncertain of what the future holds and thus, tried to forecast it. The forecast of course cannot omit the likelihood of “easy money” by forecasting the prices of equity markets in the future.