The Importance Of Interstate Conflict In Contemporary International Relations

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Contemporary international relations is bereft with comparatively fewer major interstate conflicts than other points in history, particularly in comparison to the first half of the 20th century. This raises the question of whether interstate conflict is still relevant to contemporary international relations. Despite the current lull in the frequency of interstate war, sub-threshold conflicts have not replaced interstate war as the major force of change in the international system. A number of scholars have posited that interstate war has become too costly and ineffective to matter in contemporary international relations. However, major war, though less frequent, still occurs and may experience greater frequencies in the future. Moreover, the …show more content…

M. R. Sarkees, adapting the typology used by J. David Singer and Melvin Small, defined war as composed of sustained armed combat among organized armed forces exceeding 1000 battle deaths per year (Sarkees 2014, 240). Conflicts that do not fulfill this criteria or do not involve a minimum of two states would not meet the standard for interstate war and constitute what I will refer to in this essay as “sub-threshold conflicts”. In the 1990s, the most of the important conflicts of the decade, such as those in the Balkans, the Caucuses, and Africa, the central players were not traditional militaries (Fleming 2009, 219). As such they do not fulfil the requirements of interstate war. The significance of these events on discussion of international affairs and the lack of a similar number of interstate wars gave the appearance that these sub-threshold conflicts were beginning to replace interstate war as the major source of change on the international …show more content…

In general, sub-threshold conflict is not that important. Hybrid and limited conflicts that do not reach war thresholds, such as the hybrid war raged by Russia in Ukraine, are not applicable to resolving more important strategic rivalries such as a conflict between Russia and NATO (Charap 2015, 55). Even bloody intrastate conflict have had limited geopolitical consequences. How have events in the Balkans or Rwanda changed the global balance of power or impacted the security, even defined as human security, of people outside of the conflict zones? In comparison, interstate warfare of similar scale has had much more profound impacts. The success of the United States in the First Gulf War prompted the military modernization of the People’s Republic of China, arguably one of the most significant international security developments for the 21st century (Farley 2014; U.S. Embassy 1996). The current instability of the Middle East and the increasingly alarming strategic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a direct result of the removal of Iraq as a strategic buffer by the American invasion in 2003 (Wehrey et al. 2010, xi-xii). In terms of actually driving changes in the international system, interstate war remains more important than sub-threshold conflicts, whose effects tend to be contained within the conflict in comparison to the much more dramatic

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