Malthusian processes are demographic factors that appear to increase the likelihood of civil conflict in a country (Oatley 3/24). The three primary processes that appear to have increased the prevalence of civil conflict in countries in Africa and the Middle East are: an increasing population of young people (known as “youth bulge”), a high rate of urbanization, and resource scarcity (particularly with regards to cropland and clean water) (Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion 13). However, these demographic factors are compounded by non-demographic factors “such as…unresponsive governance, and ineffective institutions” (Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion 13). Pinker’s power law distribution suggests that all wars are generated by same process. Thus, if war in the global south is caused by slow or nonexistent economic development due to a lack of political legitimacy, then the absence of war in the global north must be caused by economic development due to the presence of political legitimacy. The civil conflicts in Africa and the Middle East stem from a failure of Import Substitution Industrialization due to systemic neopatrimonialism, the failure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to aid countries in these regions in structural reforms, and the commitment problems of these illegitimate governments once civil conflict has begun.
Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) is a development strategy that was adopted by governments of developing countries in the 1950’s in an attempt to bring about industrialization as rapidly as possible (Oatley 03/17). It is characterized by protectionism of domestic manufacturing companies, state-led development strategies (such as direct state ownership of productive enterprises and state gui...
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...lation and Civil Conflict After the Cold War. Washington, DC: Population Action International, 2003. Sakai Website. Web. 23 Mar. 2014.
• Harvey, Cole. "Recitation #9." Poli 150 Recitation. Kenan Laboratories, Chapel Hill. 21 Mar. 2014. Lecture.
• Oatley, Thomas H. "Development Crises and Civil War." Poli 150 Class. Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill. 17 Mar. 2014. Lecture.
• Oatley, Thomas H. "Economic Crises and Civil Conflict." Poli 150 Class. Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill. 19 Mar. 2014. Lecture.
• Oatley, Thomas H. "Malthusianism." Poli 150 Class. Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill. 24 Mar. 2014. Lecture.
• Oatley, Thomas H. "Commitment Problems and Civil Wars." Poli 150 Class. Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill. 26 Mar. 2014. Lecture.
• Walter, Barbara F. "Bargaining Failures and Civil War." Annual Review of Political Science12.1 (2009): 243-61. Sakai Website. Web. 26 Mar. 2014.
Political violence is action taken to achieve political goals that may include armed revolution, civil strife, terrorism, war or other such activities that could result in injury, loss of property or loss of life. Political violence often occurs as a result of groups or individuals believing that the current political systems or anti-democratic leadership, often being dictatorial in nature, will not respond to their political ambitions or demands, nor accept their political objectives or recognize their grievances. Formally organized groups, Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), businesses and collectives of individual citizens are non-state actors, that being that they are not locally, nationally or internationally recognized legitimate civilian or military authorities. The Cotonou Agreement of 2000 defines non-state actors as being those parties belonging to the private sector, economic and social partners and civil society in all its forms according to national characteristics. Historical observation shows that nation states with political institutions that are not capable of, or that are resistant to recognizing and addressing societies issues and grievances are more likely to see political violence manifest as a result of disparity amongst the population. This essay will examine why non-state political violence occurs including root and trigger causes by looking at the motivations that inspire groups and individuals to resort to non-conforming behaviors that manifest as occurrences of non-state political violence. Using terrorism and Islamic militancy on the one side, and human rights and basic freedoms on the other as examples, it will look at these two primary kinds of political violence that are most prevalent in the world ...
As the newest member of the United Nations, South Sudan receives military assistance from 55 countries and police assistance from 39 countries (UN, 2014). Despite the perception of the proper steps towards long-term success, South Sudan has great potential to destabilize the entire region. This perception is based largely on the success of its economy and its ability to provide security and governance to its citizens. We will examine the potential South Sudan has to destabilize North Africa, the Horn of Africa, Central Africa, and South Africa if South Sudan becomes a failed state.
Did you know that in 2014, shoplifting and worker’s theft cost the retail industry a loss of thirty-two billion dollars (Wahba, 2015)? According Wahba “a common misperception about shoplifting is that retailers can ‘afford’ the loss of a candy bar or a pair of jeans” (2015). This type of reasoning certainly does make more sense when explained through the context of a criminological theory. For example according to the Rational Choice theory individuals weigh the costs and benefits associated with a criminal and or deviant act and then make a conscious choice. Other criminological theories explain criminal and deviant behavior using a biological, psychological, social, conflict, or multifactor component. Taking that into consideration in this
In the article Blood Barrels: Why Oil Wealth Fuels Conflict, Michael L. Ross claims that “oil wealth often wreaks havoc to a country’s economy and politics”, and fuels or is intricately involved in the majority of the world’s civil wars. The oil curse, as he calls it, begins with a country’s massive economic growth after the discovery of oil deposits, followed by the local government incurring in copious debts, squandering oil revenues, and, in many occasions, suffering from the Dutch Disease, which creates absolute economic dependability on petroleum. This curse paves the way towards armed conflict, because oil wealth leads to economic unrest that leads to further political instability, often helps to support insurgencies, and encourages separatism of enclosed economic enclaves (Ross).
Conflict Theory is stigmatized as an attempt by sociologist, to show patterns of social inequality in society. Characterizing some societal members behaviors, as those only out to further their own interest, at others expense. These unequal measures ignite the conflict between groups and individuals within society, whom have to compete for resources. This constant conflict between such classes (i.e. poor vs. well-off) can be used to understand “conflict” as a concept of social life. Commonly defined as many interactions, whether negative or positive between a group, party, or even individuals. In The Functions of Social Conflict, Coser positions: “Conflict within a group . . . may help to establish unity or to reestablish
The scientific study of civil war is always improving and always expanding and one major aspect to consider when studying civil wars is the relationship between civil wars and geography. Three key articles to the findings of relationships between civil wars and geography are “The Geography of Civil War" (2002) by Halvard Buhaug and Scott Gates, “Local Determinants of African Civil Wars" (2006) by Halvard Buhaug and Jan Ketil Rød, and “Geography as Motivation and Opportunity" (2009) by Nils B. Weidmann. First, in “The Geography of Civil War” Gates and Buhang research how strategic aspirations of the rebel groups in civil wars and factors of geography affect the location of the conflict in relation to the capital of the country and the overall size of the conflict area. Gates and Buhang believe this is an important area of study because they claim that “when it comes to exploring determinants of the location of conflicts, little or no systematic effort has been made”(419.) Gates and Buhang find that the size of the conflict (scope) is shaped by location to a border, natural resources, and conflict duration. Meanwhile they find that the distance to the capital of the fighting is influenced by the scope, size of country, whether the rebel group is trying to secede and if the rebel group has a certain identity, for example ethnic or religious. Secondly, in their article about the local determinants of African civil wars Halvard Buhaug and Jan Ketil Rød (2006) claim that the disaggregated research design (letting grids within a state be the unit of analysis) is the better design to look at the independent variables that cause civil wars. Buhaug and Rød (2006) claim that studying civil war onset at the country level overlo...
The first stage of conflict escalation develops when a divergence over some issue or frustration in a relationship proves resilient to resolution efforts. The problem remains, and leads to irritation.
“The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of struggles,” Karl Marx. The social conflict paradigm explains how each society has inequalities. Social conflict focuses mostly on racism, sexisim, ageism, socioeconomic inequality, ect. It also features how most societies are corrupt with power and greed. Along with how the elites and government controls us using things such as education and the media.
It is important to care about Africa because it is the most forgotten continent by the Western world. Africa doesn’t have the same impact as the Middle East with western society’s dependence of natural resources, such as oil and minerals. It does not escape the issue that several African rebel groups severely abuse women and children, forcing them to become child soldiers and raped at young ages. Several of human right abuses caused by the rebel groups go unpunished. In order to gain attention by the government, the rebels control territories in resource-rich areas in return gain more power and rise to destabilize the order of the state.. Rebels have strategic goals in gaining attention by increasing their value in natural resources as rebels, to increase their influential value of capturing the state (Humphrey, 2005). The question that appeals to many researchers is how do rebel groups’ resources affect the government response to their
Prospective outlooks of a country can be altered by war, a proposal that will be demonstrated in this analysis, as war can ostensibly transform a nation, and change a continent. A substantiated concept evidenced by the Second Sudanese Civil War, as the prior is essentially responsible for the recent succession of South Sudan, dissociating two ethnical groups, forcibly put together by former colonialist ties. It was a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended their two decade long war, and put forth a framework that would ultimately revise the economical, and social, design of Sudan, and subsequently most of Africa. Fundamentally, the CPA would not bring an end to the animosity between the North and the South, as border tensions, and fair oil distribution, have continued to disjoint the neighboring nations to this day.
The security dilemma can be used explain and predict ethnic conflict within a given state. Posen’s argument is supported by the belief that the basic tenets of realism provide a clear view of the security dilemma and its relationship with ethnic conflict. I believe the security dilemma in general is largely based in realist theory, and therefore fails to view international relations fairly. I believe that liberalism offers important insight into dealing with conflict that Posen fails to address.
Growing scarcity of water may provoke conflict.15 This hypothesis contradicts the view that people fight to secure control over environmental riches. Here the evidence is contradictory. It seems that both environmental poverty and resource riches can be associated with conflict.13,16,25 Environmental stress tends to make people prone to violence as they seek alternatives to desperate situations (as in Rwanda), while resource riches give strong motivation to particular groups to gain control over such resources (as in Sierra
Around the 1930s, Brazil and Latin American began following the process of Import Substitution Industrialization, which lasted until the end of the 1980s. The ISI policies devaluated the currency in order to boost exports and discourage imports, followed by adopting different exchange rates for goods (Watkins). ISI in Brazil had an interesting effect; it created a three-prong system of governmental, private, and foreign capital being directed at the infrastructure and heavy industry, manufacturing goods, and the production of durable goods. The program worked at first but then became a serious economic problem. When the 1980s came around Brazil realized that ISI policies lead to inefficient industries because of their lack of exposure to international competition, the policies ignoring the rural sector, and finally limiting the local producers. Following the end of the ISI policies, Brazil went through many plans to correct the economy and none seemed to work until the Real Plan made real changes to the country.
The causes of ethnic conflict cannot be generalised to fit all incidents, as the conflicts in Sri
My father spent his early life running. Running from the terror in Mexico to the United States. Running from the gang and violence-infested communities in southeast Los Angeles to Houston. With each start he was not only running away from something, but towards something: towards a safer future for his family. In his eyes, the desired future was not attainable in such areas where conflict was prevalent. The only viable option was not to wait for the tensions to subside but to take matters into his own hands and search for the harmony that he never experienced. Growing up, I noted how these experiences influenced my father’s values in the way that he tried to raise his family. While these accounts did not directly affect me as much as they