Malthusian processes are demographic factors that appear to increase the likelihood of civil conflict in a country (Oatley 3/24). The three primary processes that appear to have increased the prevalence of civil conflict in countries in Africa and the Middle East are: an increasing population of young people (known as “youth bulge”), a high rate of urbanization, and resource scarcity (particularly with regards to cropland and clean water) (Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion 13). However, these demographic factors are compounded by non-demographic factors “such as…unresponsive governance, and ineffective institutions” (Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion 13). Pinker’s power law distribution suggests that all wars are generated by same process. Thus, if war in the global south is caused by slow or nonexistent economic development due to a lack of political legitimacy, then the absence of war in the global north must be caused by economic development due to the presence of political legitimacy. The civil conflicts in Africa and the Middle East stem from a failure of Import Substitution Industrialization due to systemic neopatrimonialism, the failure of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to aid countries in these regions in structural reforms, and the commitment problems of these illegitimate governments once civil conflict has begun.
Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) is a development strategy that was adopted by governments of developing countries in the 1950’s in an attempt to bring about industrialization as rapidly as possible (Oatley 03/17). It is characterized by protectionism of domestic manufacturing companies, state-led development strategies (such as direct state ownership of productive enterprises and state gui...
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