Conflict Analysis Of Conflict

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A vital step in a complete conflict analysis is to understand who the actors are, in other words, to analyse parties of the conflict. Firstly, according to Army and David, the mediator should understand the internal organizational structure of the parties. It means that understanding hierarchy, and how decisions are made and who participates in decision-making within the parties. Besides, any existing or potential internal factions should be taken into account. Army and David give an example that the lack of understanding of parties to the conflict resulted in a failure in a peace settlement. Because the mediator did not recognize the complexity of the factionalism within the rebel movements, Dafur Peace Agreement in 2006 failed. In Army and …show more content…

As Army and David (2008) states, “neighbouring states or powerful states with close relations with the parties as well as regional and international organizations may influence local parties”. Army and David add that the mediator should also identify states that may assist and be willing to support a peace settlement and recognize what sources of help they can bring. In short, the mediator should be concerned with “the role that regional and international organizations are playing or can play in the peace process”(Army and David, 2008). Besides, Army and David claim that another player such as non-governmental organizations (NGOs) should be taken into account. In particular, they believe that the mediator should ascertain if NGOs are providing humanitarian aid to the parties, whether they possess close ties with local, whether they are a trustworthy presence of the local as the fact is that NGOs could play a valuable role in the peace process if they are involved with both sides of the conflict (Army and David, …show more content…

In a simple way, a ripe moment can be understood as a right point of entry into a dispute. It is believed that deciding when to intervene into a conflict, if appropriately, will have the highest possibility of the success in mediation. The concept of a ripe moment, according to Zartman and Alvaro de Soto (2010), is based on parties’ perception of “Mutually Hurting Stalemate” whereby, parties find themselves locked in a conflict and the continuation of conflict will only be painful to both of them. There is no route to victory for both sides; they come to a deadlock and then naturally become open to third party intervention. Henry Kissinger believes that “stalemate is the most propitious condition for settlement” (cited in Zartman, 2008). Zartman admitted ripeness has contributed to success of numerous mediation such as EL Salvador in 1988 and Mozambique in 1992 while a lack of ripeness led to a failure in mediation between Eritrea and Ethiopia in the late 1980s and continually within Sudan, this further stress the importance of timing in mediation. Parties acknowledge the significance of a ripe moment, so, how do they know when is ripe? A ripe moment is not a condition for them to wait for, but a condition to work towards (Sewedo Akoro, 2014). Zartman and Alvaro de

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