Communication In Weather Communication

Communicating Risk

Effective communication of risk to an end-user is an important step that must occur for decision makers to make good, self-sufficient decisions. People make many important decisions under risk or uncertainty, such as investing money in the stock market, choosing to have a particular surgery done, or evaluating the potential danger of an upcoming storm. There is often good information available about the risks they face, but exactly how to communicate that risk has been a prominently discussed topic in the scientific community for several decades now. Fortunately, researchers from different domains understand this importance and have started empirically testing different forms of communication for accurate understanding and

These categorical expressions are advantageous as they provide a brief summary of risk, and some field research has suggested that warnings from public officials are an important factor in the decision to take precautionary action (Baker, 1995). However, these categories have no objective meaning and it is not clear how they are understood by the public or emergency managers, the very people who are tasked with preparing a community or organization for an upcoming weather event (Sheperd,

In a study analyzing the tornado seasons of 2009-2011, Nagele and Trainor (2012) found that people within the warning polygon (a visual indication of tornado likelihood) were no more likely to seek shelter than those living outside the polygon but in the same county (approximately 40%). Evidence also suggests that people do not take sufficient precautionary action when flood warnings are issued (Gruntfest et al., 1978; Parker, Priest & Tapsell, 2009). Similarly, interviews of residents under mandatory evacuation for Andrew and Hugo, both Category 4 hurricanes, revealed that only 42% evacuated their homes (Riad, Norris, & Ruback, 1999). For Hurricane Floyd, the evacuation rate was only 64% (Dow & Cutter, 2000). For Hurricane Ike, only 60% complied with mandatory evacuation orders and the other 40% of people chose to stay despite being warned of “certain death” (McKinely & Urbina, 2008). These and other equally dramatic examples lead to a growing possibility that categorical communication alone is not sufficient to prompt action for extreme weather