Chris Davis Case Problem

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Chris Davis is having a good but not great year. His .238/.350/.464 line is good for a wRC+ of 119 and has him on pace to be worth 2.7 fWAR. These are good numbers, but not the elite numbers that Davis has put up in the past and that fans perhaps were hoping to see. It is possible to blame his lack of production on his increasing walk and strikeout rates. With a strikeout rate of 36%, Davis is on pace to have the highest percentage of strikeouts in a season for his major league career. His 14.4% walk rate is also the highest of his career, but doesn’t nearly make up for the strikeouts. Remember, Chris Davis crushes the ball when he puts it into play, so he benefits by doing it as much as possible.
A number of people believe that he’s struggling …show more content…

While his swing rate decreases based on distance, he still doesn’t always swing at pitches in the first two bins while he does swing at pitches in the last three bins that he’s unlikely to hit or be productive when putting into play. However, he does historically swing at the vast majority of pitches in those two bins. It’s very possible that a more sophisticated analysis that takes pitcher hand, spin, perceived velocity and other relevant variables into account may show that the pitches in those bins he doesn’t swing at are harder to hit than just distance would suggest. It’s also possible that it’s hard for Chris Davis to hit a fastball down the middle if he’s expecting a curveball on the outside corner.
In addition, even when he does swing at pitches in the first two bins, he only puts them into play roughly 35% of the time. Chris Davis may be very successful when he puts the ball into play, but he struggles to do so even when swinging at appropriate pitches. This shows the challenges of putting even clear strikes into play, and hence explains why sluggers may want to be patient and avoid borderline pitches that may be balls. His results have been less favorable in 2017 as the following chart …show more content…

This would suggest that his problem isn’t so much that he needs to swing more or swing less, but rather that he needs to swing smarter.
Going forward, this chart suggests a way for the Orioles training staff to get Chris Davis to improve. It’s reasonably clear to see the distances where Chris Davis has success. It should be easy enough to instruct him in batting practice to only swing at pitches that are a certain distance from the center of the strike zone. Improving his eye should help his performance just as much as ensuring that his swing is working properly.
Chris Davis isn’t the type of batter that should be swinging frequently because he’s unlikely to put pitches into play. Rather, he’s the type of batter that needs to develop a patient eye so that he gets the opportunity to swing at pitches that he is able to hit. With a batter like Chris Davis, it’s less important to swing frequently than to swing

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