Introduction In this research paper, we examine the distinct theories of traditional and behavioural finance, linking them to efficient market hypothesis. The scope of the paper covers market anomalies as well as behavioural biases of individuals/analysts and the impact of such on portfolio construction. Over the last two (2) decades, behavioural finance has been growing steadily. This growth is associated with the realization that investors rarely behave according to the assumptions made in traditional finance and economics. Traditional finance can be regarded as theories which are currently accepted in academic finance, in which the foundation is based on modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis. (Baker, 2013)Traditional finance has served to be the dominant paradigm for decades in which investors are guided with regards to decision making. In congruent with the traditional finance theory, the efficient market hypothesis is one of the most accepted theories by academic financial economist. This hypothesis postulates that markets will perform efficiently when there are large numbers of rational profit maximizing investors, who are competing amongst each other in the aim to predict future market values of individual securities. For efficient markets to operate, it is critical for current information to be available at no cost for all investors. The latter was postulated through tests performed by Manderlbort and Samuelson. Furthermore, Fama et al. (The father of modern finance) performed tests to determine whether stock markets are efficient with regards to how quickly they react to new information. The effect of stock splits on prices was studied by Fama et al. and from their observations, it was concluded tha... ... middle of paper ... ...aturdays and Sunday. Under the efficient market hypothesis there should be no difference with regards to the day of the week. Also observed is the holiday effect where there are unusually high stock returns before stock market holidays. A plausible explanation for this is that on a holiday people feel pleasurable which leads to a high purchasing power and as a consequence the high returns for the day before the holiday. With these anomalies that are present within the efficient market hypothesis, the question becomes should we negate the efficient market hypothesis with regards to portfolio construction or should behaviour finance be seen as an alternative to the efficient market hypothesis. Works Cited www.vanguard.co.uk/documents/portal/literature/behavioural-finance-guide.pdf www.cfainstitute.org/learning/products/publications/cp/pages/cp.v24.n.1.4540.aspx
Fama propounded EMH, in 1965, stating that provided all available information is used, market prices will reflect reasonably accurate approximations of the inherent present value of securities; the employment of this information would render agents’ actions rational. Ball expands on this by suggesting that competitive markets lead to costs falling in line with the employment of information.
Growth and value investing are two distinct styles of investing that have spurred interest from investors and academics alike. Scholars have come to agree that value investment strategies, on average, outperform growth investment strategies (Chan et al., 2004, p.71). However, the underlying cause of this discrepancy in performance is still highly debated. In Chan and Lakonishoks’ (2004) research they dismantle the argument that the performance differential is a result of a difference of risk and look towards behavioral theories that can explain the superior value investing strategy. The researchers hypothesize that individual investors have a tendency to use simple heuristics in picking a security, resulting in a selection of securities with recent high earnings yet a lack of consistent earnings (p.76-77). This behavioral analysis parallels Statman’s (2004) use of behavioral analysis of the tendency for individual investors to utilize simple heuristics in their decision to not diversify their portfolios (p. 44). Chan and Lakonishoks’ (2004) use of the behavioral theory to call to attention an excellent explanation for the improved performance with value stocks indirectly bolsters Statman’s conjectural use of the behavioral theory to justify the lack of diversification amongst individual
Financial market link to the real economy. Very often the markets are sensitive to many variables for example of most efficient managers with a SAT score above 1420, however according to “Chevalier and Ellison's manager characteristics model can explain only about 5% of the total variation in mutual fund returns” (James L. Davis), because the style-adjusted passive benchmark model has proved to be more efficient in work of the average mutual fund than the active one (James L. Davis).
Portfolio Theory is not only used for budgeting, but is also used in investment strategies. Financial advisors create portfolios optimized to provide a certain rate of return at a certain level of risk. These portfolios can be comprised of a variety of financial instruments, like stocks, bonds, or mutual funds. In essence, the theory allows a client to build something to their specifications depending on how ag...
A day after the negative financial news has a greater negative impact on the closing price
The efficient market hypothesis has been one of the main topics of academic finance research. The efficient market hypotheses also know as the joint hypothesis problem, asserts that financial markets lack solid hard information in making decisions. Efficient market hypothesis claims it is impossible to beat the market because stock market efficiency causes existing share prices to always incorporate and reflect all relevant information . According to efficient market hypothesis stocks always trade at their fair value on stock exchanges, making it impossible for investors to either purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. As such, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and that the only way an investor can possibly obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments . In reality once cannot always achieve returns in excess of average market return on a risk-adjusted basis. They have been numerous arguments against the efficient market hypothesis. Some researches point out the fact financial theories are subjective, in other words they are ideas that try to explain how markets work and behave.
Vergin R., McGinnis J. (1999) “Revisiting the Holiday effect: is it on holiday?”, Journal of Applied Financial Economics, Vol.9, pp. 477-482
Second, the efficient market hypothesis cannot explain market anomalies. These market anomalies include the pricing/earnings effect, the size and January effect, the monthly effect, holiday effect and the weekend effect. These anomalies indicate either market ineffici...
According to Perold (2004), ‘CAPM can be served as a benchmark for understanding the capital market phenomena that cause asset prices and investor behavior to deviate from the prescript...
The project is done to find out the impact of stock split on the stock market. In our project, we have made use of event study methodology to assess the accuracy of stock price reaction of 39 public listed Indian companies in National Stock Exchange (BSE) in the year 2006 and onwards. The abnormal returns (actual returns-returns from regression line) results were taken for 20 days before and after the announcement date to test whether the result is significant or not (Level of significance=5%). The project shows that there is no significance difference in the price level before the announcement date while after the announcement date, there was a significant difference in the price level for few days(level of significance being 5%) The project supports the hypothesis that Indian stock market is semi strong efficient.
Examining the monthly stock market and trading volume over forty years shows that higher volume in trading follows months with higher returns (Statman et al., 2006). This inevitably causes overconf...
Due to this passive view or narrow framing, people fail to understand the totality of a give situation. The rational-agent model assumes that investors make their choices in a comprehensively inclusive, broad framing manner, which factors all relevant details, including future opportunities and risk. In reality, investors have the tendency to evaluate their portfolios based on an extremely short time horizon. In addition, investor decisions about a particular investment are often considered in isolation of the total portfolio, especially if a loss occurs, as opposed to a comprehensive manner. Ultimately, short-term evaluations lead to excessive trading, increased portfolio expenses and
Chapter 11 closes our discussion with several insights into the efficient market theory. There have been many attempts to discredit the random walk theory, but none of the theories hold against empirical evidence. Any pattern that is noticed by investors will disappear as investors try to exploit it and the valuation methods of growth rate are far too difficult to predict. As we said before the random walk concludes that no patterns exist in the market, pricing is accurate and all information available is already incorporated into the stock price. Therefore the market is efficient. Even if errors do occur in short-run pricing, they will correct themselves in the long run. The random walk suggest that short-term prices cannot be predicted and to buy stocks for the long run. Malkiel concludes the best way to consistently be profitable is to buy and hold a broad based market index fund. As the market rises so will the investors returns since historically the market continues to rise as a whole.
Traditional finance perspective theorist believes that individuals who have will to venture into investment activities does not allow their emotions to be guided by how investment information is presented to them. However, the same cannot be said for the behavioural finance perspective. Through psychological studies, researchers of behavioural finance have come to the understanding of how human behaviour and behavioural finance connected. This connection can create behavioural biases which can positively or negatively impact on the growth of investment opportunities. This research is on behavioural biases is categorized into two specific groups, cognitive errors and emotional biases.
This paper will define and discuss five financial theories and how they impact business decisions made by financial managers. The theories will be the Modern Portfolio Theory, Tobin Separation Theorem, Equilibrium Theory, Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.