3823 Words16 Pages

Bayes' Theorem
I first became interested in Bayes' Theorem after reading Blind Man's Bluff, Sontag (1998). The book made mention how Bayes' Theorem was used to locate a missing thermonuclear bomb in Spain in 1966. Furthermore, it was again used by the military to locate the missing submarine USS Scorpion (Sontag, pg. 97) that had imploded when it sank several years later. I was intrigued by the nature of the theory and wanted to know more about it. When I was reading our textbook for the class, I came across Bayes' Theorem again, and found an avenue to do more research.
There has been much study and many, many articles, papers and books devoted to Bayesian thought and statistics. My research involved literary search at the University of Memphis through Lexis-Nexis, ABI and many other electronic sources available at the University. I read many peer reviewed papers and reviewed several books about Bayed Theorem. I searched the Internet using several search engines and found much of the same literature found through the more conventional methods at the university. Additionally, as part of my research, I conducted an in depth telephone interview with the historian at the Atomic Museum in Albuquerque N.M..
I researched the development of the theorem and its criticism, and included my findings in this paper. Probably the most useful text in understanding the Theorem, and a definitive work supporting its use, is John Earman's work, Bayes or Bust?: A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation. This book examined the relevant literature and the development of Bayesian statistics as well as defended it from its critics.
LIST OF EQUATIONS AND ILLUSTRATIONS
page
Equation 1: Bayes Theorem A1
Equation 2: B...
... middle of paper ...
... T. (1979, November). Why I am not an Objective Bayesian: Some Reflections Prompted by Rosenkranz. Theory and Decision pp.413-440.
Smith, A.F.M. (1986). Why isn't Everyone a Bayesian? Comment American Statistician 40(number 1):10.
Smith, C. (1997). Theory and the Art of Communications Design. Seattle, State of the University Press.
Sontag, S and Drew, C. (1998). Blind Man's Bluff. New York; HarperCollins
Spielman, S. (1977). Physical Probability and Bayesian Statistics. Synthese 36:235-269.
APPENDIX
Equation 1
Equation 2
Equation 3
Equation 4
ILLUSTRATIONS
Illustration 1
A B52 Stratofortress owned by the National Atomic Museum, similar to the one that crash off the coast of Spain in 1966.
Illustration 2
One of the three Atomic bombs found on the coast of Palmares Spain, in 1966.

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