Authoritarianism in Central Asia

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Theories of Transition
Different theories assessing transition have been put forward by scholars in the field explaining the outcome of transitions. Two major sets of theories have developed over time; the bottom- up and the top-down approaches. Bunce (2003) argue that mass mobilization has a determining role in the regime outcome amongst the post-Communist states. Georgia and Ukraine illustrates cases where popular mobilization has had an impact on the regime structure. We can see that civil society and mass mobilization is a pivotal factor in determining how stable an authoritarian regime is, as we can see in the events in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Way (2008) argue that the top-down structural factor of the regime is a deciding factor in whether an authoritarian regime remains in power or not. Way means that the strength of the coercion/security apparatus of the state is a vital factor since it can repress the mass mobilization that might threaten the regime resilience. According to Bunce and Wolchik (2006) the wave of Color Revolutions that spread over the post-Communist region diffused through states and mass mobilization was occurring in a number of states. They argue that this phenomena failed to diffuse to certain states due to the absence/ very small number of domestic actors supporting the cause and the swift authoritarian reactions from the regimes in states like Kazakhstan, where the student stipend were raised to prevent a similar situation in Kazakhstan (Bunce and Wolchik, 2006). They further argue that the relations to other power actors in the international sphere and the economic self-sustainability of state in question. Jones Luong (2002) highlights the impact of negotiation uncertainty and power shift du...

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...reviously mentioned, affect the density of the linkage between the West and the state in question. As the previous section outlined, Kazakhstan has favored Russia in the regards of trade and political alignment. This has its roots in the Soviet legacies and the reluctance towards independence experienced in Kazakhstan after the dissolution of the Union (Gill, 2002). The political course set was therefore cherishing the Soviet legacy and the Russian relationship without much uncertainty. This has resulted in weak ties to the West which means that the linkage remains low and so the influence for democratization. The aspect of linkage depends much on domestic structures that either enables or disabled the linkage to the West; these factors will be discussed more in depth in the section focusing on the domestic dimension.

stable authoritarian rule in Turkmenistan.

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