Audio Digital Devices

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An S-curve analysis of the portable audio players industry yields interesting insights about the technological evolution of the industry as well as the implications for the firms competing in the market of such devices. In order to effectively analyze the industry it is useful to first provide a brief overview of the evolution of the technology of portable audio players.

In 1964 the first portable audio device was introduced in the market, the 8 track cartridge stereo. The four most important features of this device from the perspective of the customer and thus relevant for S-curve analysis were size of the device, storage capacity, audio quality and ease of use (I will limit to the discussion of selecting the song a customer wants the device to play for simplicity). In 1982 the first CD-player was introduced in the market. The relevant S-curve performance metrics for the device are also those of the 8 track cartridge stereo. Finally, in 1998 digital audio players were introduced and they added an entirely new set of performance variables such as video display quality and speed of downloading music onto the device from the internet.

To provide a clear structure for the analysis I will discuss the evolution of the S-curves of each performance metric over effort. First, I will comment on the size or portability metric. The shape of the S-curves (please see attached figures for all metrics) reveal that initially portable audio players were very large in size as 8 track cartridges were very large. As higher investments in R&D were incurred smaller audio cassettes were developed until the technology reached its natural limits as the magnetic tape of these cassettes could no longer be reduced in size. CD players represented a dis...

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...urve for such variable with natural limits which would be perfect display visible to the human eye.

From a marketing standpoint is seems like audio digital devices are currently superior to all other technologies currently in the market in all performance metrics. In terms of financial profitability it seems like only storage capacity could be currently improved and sold for a premium, all other performance metrics seem to be at their maximum profitability levels (that is no customer would pay additional money for an improvement in such metrics). In terms of disruptive technologies there may be new music devices in the future that rely on a new form of technology that is not digital technology however none seems to be emerging at this time.

Bibliography

Foster, R.. Innovation, The Attacker’s Advantage. NY: Summit Books, 1986, pp.88-111.

www.wikipedia.org

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