Analysis Of Black Swan

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The black Swan

This book is a philosophical essay on the importance of chance. The author Nassim Nicholas Taleb defends the thesis that the most improbable events always end up coming. This kind of event is called Black Swan. A Black Swan is a random, highly unlikely event that it is difficult to predict and that impacts our lives.
More specifically, according to the author, it meets the following three characteristics: "This is an aberration, its impact is extremely strong and our human nature pushes us to concoct ex post explanations of its occurrence, making it explainable and predictable”
The author speaks of blindness in front of chance, and especially the events that particularly stand out from our expectations. Three parts constitute Taleb’s reasoning:
- An analysis of how to collect historical and current events and distortions inherent in this perception
- A study of mistakes by understanding the future and the limitations of science
- the issue of extreme events and our reference to the Gaussian curve/bell curve.
The book's title refers to the story that before the discovery of Australia, it was thought that all swans, without exception, were white. It is subtitled: The Impact of the highly improbable.
That is what he is mainly talking about but also our blindness to the "Black Swans", these "aberrations" defined as unexpected events because they are very improbable (which have never occurred in the past), and have significant impacts that we explain and try to explain.
According to the author, "Our world is dominated by the extreme, the unknown and the very improbable (improbable according our current knowledge)". Too often, we tend to confuse improbable and impossible, we are locked into patterns of thoughts that d...

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...e forecasters and economists (who are absolutely wrong all the time) considering them as both dishonest and incompetent.
This is an essay that bears its name and which perfectly fulfills its role. Polemical and perhaps even partisan, he exhibits a subjective analysis and personal reflection, and open the debate. He does not pretend to provide demonstrations and can afford the approximation because it is not a scientific treatise or a study. Metaphorical examples are widely used. Even though some themes are already known by people and the readers, the unorthodox way to discuss about it is original and stimulating. This essay also have the merit of being distinguished by a sense of humor, sometimes feisty, with a playful tone that do not detract from its quality, highlighting and confirming what we know: it is not necessary to be boring to talk about serious things.

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