An Ecomomic Forecast
Evaluating the bull market today, it is almost impossible to pick up a financial journal without seeing news on the bull market that some consider to be overvalued. Overvalued or fairly valued, only the future will show the truth. Either way, this market is one that has shown greater run ups and returns, than any other market in history. (Reference Appendix #1a) Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached historical highs and then receded back to previous levels, leaving investors who are used to consistent and record setting gains month after month, baffled. Both the Dow Jones and the S & P 500 indices have seen modest and even flat performances over the past three months. (Reference #1b) A recent article that was published on the front page of the Wall Street Journal emphasized that returns were flat due to the fact that investors were concerned of the possible on set of inflation. If these concerns are warranted and inflation is thus expected, the Bull market may very well be over. This after all makes sense, inflation has slowed and stopped many run-ups in the past, and the onset of inflation now could very well do the same. While the article introduced some possibilities, it said nothing of the likelihood, the causes of, the Fed.'s reactions to, and the probability of expected inflationary increases in the future. This paper is thus dedicated to expanding on these ideas by exploring the rationality of these concerns by examining the circumstances surrounding inflation. It is my speculation that the Bull market may eventually correct itself in the future, but not in the short term due to immediate inflation. That is, that the market was in fact flat due investors concerns, but actual imperative inflation does not look to be expected in the near future. In order to begin to understand the nature of market trends and forces, one must first consider the current state of the U.S. economy relative to its' business cycle. Certain aggregates can be measured that tell us a great deal about this. These aggregates have a strong history of leading, coinciding, or lagging the relative business cycle with a high amount of regular correlation. Appendix 2a contains illustrations, which show graphically the trends of the leading, lagging, and coincident indicators over the past few years. These graphs are composites of each group, and upon examination it is clear that all the indicators are rising.
The Poole Model is a macroeconomic model where its main objective is to answer the discussion on whether monetary policy should be conducted using a money-supply rule or an interest-rate rule when managing the economy. In the Poole Model, the Central Bank’s objective is to minimize the loss function:
This paper aims to discuss the Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of the Great Recession and
Rebirth, a prominent idea in Christianity and Western thought, is often associated with rejuvenation and second chances. The idea of a second birth is both a baptism and a change in identity— all of which figure prominently in Charles Dickens’s novel, A Tale of Two Cities. Two characters, Dr. Manette and Sydney Carton, both go through the process of rebirth and a change of identity. The process of birth is in nature a responsibility of the female, in both Dr. Manette’s case and Sydney Carton’s they are reborn through the actions they do for Lucie— whose name is telling in itself, meaning light/daylight all symbolic of something new/God the light and the way. Resurrection is a reoccurring theme which can be seen through the actions of Dr. Manette and Sydney Carton.
Macroeconomic Forecasting Abstract Annual data was gathered on the United States' Gross Domestic Product and the economic indicators of unemployment, employment growth, inflation, and interest rates. Using 2004 as the base year, forecasts for the next two years were taken from three different forecasting organizations and compared to historical figures. Differences in projected data were addressed, as well as relationships between forecasts and among the targeted indicators. The results of the economic forecasts were applied to current Motorola operations and plans.
Post the era of World War I, of all the countries it was only USA which was in win win situation. Both during and post war times, US economy has seen a boom in their income with massive trade between Europe and Germany. As a result, the 1920’s turned out to be a prosperous decade for Americans and this led to birth of mass investments in stock markets. With increased income after the war, a lot of investors purchased stocks on margins and with US Stock Exchange going manifold from 1921 to 1929, investors earned hefty returns during this time epriod which created a stock market bubble in USA. However, in order to stop increasing prices of Stock, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate sof loanabel funds which depressed the interest sensitive spending in many industries and as a result a record fall in stocks of these companies were seen and ultimately the stock bubble was finally burst. The fall was so dramatic that stock prices were even below the margins which investors had deposited with their brokers. As a reuslt, not only investor but even the brokerage firms went insolvent. Withing 2 days of 15-16 th October, Dow Jones fell by 33% and the event was referred to Great Crash of 1929. Thus with investors going insolvent, a major shock was seen in American aggregate demand. Consumer Purchase of durable goods and business investment fell sharply after the stock market crash. As a result, businesses experienced stock piling of their inventories and real output fell rapidly in 1929 and throughout 1930 in United States.
Macroeconomic Forecast Pfizer, Inc. - Pfizer, Abstract This paper is a Macroeconomic Forecast Outline of Pfizer, Inc. This outline will identify the main economic indicators for Pfizer as a business entity and as a representative of the pharmaceutical industry. This paper will identify sources of various data collected based on economic activity and relationships between different economic indicators.
The nature of mind and body has been debated constantly, but the answer has always been present in our own minds. In Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities, two extremely different characters, Sydney Carton and Charles Darnay, are presented, and much quarreling has arisen over their being representative of the clash of the mind and the body, and if so, which is which. Sydney Carton is symbolic of the mind and Charles Darnay of the body. The mind, Carton, and the body, Darnay, are one being who react to situations adversely; but where the body is physical, the mind is philosophical, and the mind gives life to the body.
Comparing the 1929 Market Crash and the Current Position in the Stock Market During the 1920's, the North American economy was roaring, but this decade would eventually be put to a stop. In October of 1929, the stock market began its steepest decline to this date in history. Many stock market traders and economists believe and pray that it was a one-shot episode never to be repeated. On the other hand, many financial analysts and other economists believe that the current stock markets are in place to repeat the calamitous errors of the 1920's. In this paper, I will analyze the causes of the crash and discuss the possibilities of it re-occurring.
A Tale of Two Cities takes place in England and France, during the time of the French Revolution. A Tale of Two Cities is a classic novel, where Charles Dickens presents to the reader archetypal main characters. From the beginning of the novel, the reader can know whether the characters are evil or not. In the novel, the main character, Sydney Carton, also contributes a lot to the theme of the novel-every individual should have both moral and physical courage, and should be able to sacrifice everything in the name of love.
One of the many ways that Charles Dickens promotes the motif of sacrifice in A Tale of Two Cities is when Sydney Carton sacrifices his life for Lucie Darnay’s happiness. Before Lucie became married to her husband, Charles, Sydney Carton professed his unrequited love for her as well by stating, ‘“For you, and any dear to you, I would do anything”’ (117). Carton realized his promise of self-sacrifice when Lucie’s husband, Charles Darnay, was sentenced to death by means of the
In early 1928 the Dow Jones Average went from a low of 191 early in the year, to a high of 300 in December of 1928 and peaked at 381 in September of 1929. (1929…) It was anticipated that the increases in earnings and dividends would continue. (1929…) The price to earnings ratings rose from 10 to 12 to 20 and higher for the market’s favorite stocks. (1929…) Observers believed that stock market prices in the first 6 months of 1929 were high, while others saw them to be cheap. (1929…) On October 3rd, the Dow Jones Average began to drop, declining through the week of October 14th. (1929…)
...he will do anything for her, even die for someone she loves. Lucie recalls Sydney by opening him up to doing something with his life. He later uses this new mindset to save Charles’s life. After Sydney is inspired to make something of his life he vows to do something good. To do this, he dies for Charles Darnay to show his love for Lucie. This is how Sydney Carton is recalled to life.
We analyzed the market for two weeks to determine when the equity market would turn from a bearish to bullish market. Without a change in the market and a declining bond price, we decided to invest in equities according to our investment strategy, which brought us into the second phase of our portfolio. Therefore, at the beginning of February we bought shares in Sirius, Microsoft, Neon, Washington Mutual, and Nike. As assumed, the equity market continued to plummet decreasing the value of all our stocks except for our Gold Corporation stock.
The macroeconomic environment is a dynamic environment, which could not remain unchanged (Gajewsky 2015). There are many factors influence the global macroeconomic environment, such as interest rate, exchange rate, GDP，aggregate demand, monetary policy and other macroeconomic variable (Oxelheim and Wihlborg 2008). These factors are closely associated with commodity price.
The changes in society and the social well-being of people underlie the primary purpose of the Romantic Movement. Romanticism originally was the reaction against the Enlightenment. According to the Scientific Journal Of Humanistic Studies, the Enlightenment’s purpose was “to reform society using reason, challenging ideas are grounded in tradition and faith, and advance knowledge through the scientific method. “It promoted scientific thought, skepticism, and intellectual interchange” (Bodrogean). With the historical and cultural context of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Romanticism in music took two distinctive paths. “One path in particular was taken in the path to find sources in the French Revolution of 1789 through 1793 and other revolutionary movements such as the July Revolution of 1830” (Fluck).Realism is found everywhere in literature and has enhanced the experiences of our lives, especially in the humanities. The ultimate influential arguments for realism is that it represents the life that people live. In response to the Romantic Era, the Realism Movement sought to depict real-life situations and people that not only affected literature, but also the American music written in the early eighteenth century through the twenty-first century.