2. Versus order look serial correlation but not sure, there is a long run of negative from 5 to 10, 10 to 17, and long run of positive from 30 to 35. On top on time 30 seem odd. But one cannot tell by just looking at it visually. One will be running the test to see if there is serial correlation or not by testing Durbin Watson and LM serial correlation. The Durbin Watson practice warning is around 2.0% my Statistic for Durbin-Watson is 1.45 I can reject the null of no serial correlation and accept the alternative of serial correlation.
The LM test will conclude for serial correlation or no serial correlation. I ran the residual lag in the Right hand side with the other 2 variables. LM test will test for first order serial correlation.
I will be looking at unadjusted R-sq which is 7.44% in decimal that is 0.07% and from the total analysis of variance I have 34 observations. Therefore, my calculate test statistic is 34-1*.0744 = 2.4552 for high distribution my alpha level in 1 degree of freedom. Table value for 3.8%, therefore; 2.4% is less than 3.8% we reject the null of serial correlation in the favor of alternative no serial correlation.
Even though Durbin Watson show there is serial correlation I prefer LM test of no serial correlation. There are no consequences or any fixes; since I have used the dummies for my test I have seen changes in my regression. Therefore, I will move on to next test.
3. versus fit looks heteroscedasticity that w...
... middle of paper ...
...ation however I also ran LM test to get the better result and have rejected the serial correlation and accept the no serial correlation. My consequence without the dummies gave me wrong results. The fixes are adding my dummies for seasonality or else I would have to drop all variables, need to get better variables and start all over again.
In conclusion, it was very hard to find a right hand side variables but using the dummies for seasonality my LM test and KB-test came out perfectly. As a manager I would have more idea now and would learn more future if I do this work as manager. I would definitely need more skills for regression. I would not feel so comfortable doing my regression but need more practice. The warning sign I will be looking for are my wrong model. I will ask myself before even running regression if my sign are right or not.
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