Climate Change : Climate And Biological Factors

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3.2 Modelling Aapproaches Climate change impact would depend upon complex interactions of climatic and biological factors with technological and socio-economical changes that are difficult to predict. Quantitative (modelling) approaches, which allows investigation of multiple scenarios and interactions simultaneously, will thus become more important for impact assessment (Coakley and Scherm, 1996). Sutherst et al. (1996) have given a framework for such model-based assessment of climate change impacts. Some of these approaches are discussed here. Climate mMatching: Climate matching involves the computation of a “match index” to quantify the similarity in climate between two or more locations. The match index is based on variables, such as monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and evaporation. Software packages for climate matching include BIOCLIM (Busby, 1991), CLIMEX (Sutherst and Maywald, 1985), HABITAT (Walker and Cocks, 1991) and WORLD (Booth, 1990). Climate matching may be used for climate change impact assessment by identifying those locations on the globe, where current climate is most similar to the predicted future climate at the location of interest. An analysis of the plant disease problems at the matching locations based on disease distribution maps made it possible to predict future disease risk at the location of interest (Weltzien, 1972). Simulation of change in insect distribution ranges: CLIMEX software can be used to generate distribution maps of insect species and to assess the possible distributions of these insects in changing climate (Sutherst and Maywald, 1985). It holds weather data for monthly long-term average maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity from 2031 m... ... middle of paper ... ...ved useful in such studies. BioSim uses available knowledge about the responses of particular species to key climatic factors to predict their potential geographic range and performance (Régnière and St-Amant, 2008). This approach has been applied to three species of importance to North American forests, using climate normals (averages and variances measured over standard 30-year intervals) for the periods of 1971–2000 and 2041–2070 (Logan et al., 2003). 5.3 Pest Fforewarning Reliable medium-range weather forecast can help in proper timing of crop management practices such as sowing, irrigation, fertilizer application and pesticide application. This would increase efficiency of crop production and protection technology. Likewise, pest forecasting can help in cautioning farmers about impending pest situation and adoption of preventive measures to avert pest problems.
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