Classification Of Conditions : A Structure Of Analysis Introduced By Rustow

Classification Of Conditions : A Structure Of Analysis Introduced By Rustow

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classification of conditions that lead to democratization and subsequent consolidation steps towards democracy – a structure of analysis introduced by Rustow (1970). The explanations for the onset of the pro-democracy protests methodologically resonates with some elements of “Regime Change Cascades” (Hale, 2013) especially the spread of demonstrations from Tunisia to neighboring Egypt, Libya, and the rest of the Arab world.
A large portion of the literature is focused on case studies – either single case studies with content analysis or a comparative study of several countries. The widespread qualitative case study methods makes the literature weaker on the quantitative end of the scholarship. A combination of both methods could further strengthen the level of analysis and predictive power of the variables. Quantitative analysis is feasible especially now that some time has passed and opportunities for field research, surveys, and interviews are expanded.
An inter-paradigmatic analysis approach in explanation the various outcomes of the Arab Spring is missing gap. Though some scholars started employing such an approach, but it is not further developed nor comprehensively used.
Overall the important internal variables in the literature explaining the variation in the outcome and trajectories of the Arab Spring include the structural settings of the regimes, regime types, distribution of resources, cleavages among the opposition groups, the underdeveloped civil society institutions, lower level of education, and a lack of organizational and institutional capacity among parties that can lead to an effective transition. Moreover, armed conflicts and civil wars in a number of the countries have completely changed the direction of the...


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..., and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPECT). Doing so will ensure better external validity of the findings and can increase the number of countries and possibly the entire region to be covered.
Using new sources for empirical analysis like the “Conflict Database” (Uppsala University 2016), which includes a complete and updated database of any conflict in the region where more than five people are killed can provide new insights in developing a normative explanation for the future direction of the Arab Spring. Moreover, the recent development regarding peace negotiations over the problem of the “Islamic State”, the Kurdish separatist movements in Syria, and the political future of the Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in Syria provide new variables that can be used to determine a normative view of the outcomes and trajectories (Kazerooni and Prince, 2016).

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