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risk analysis in investment decisions
risk analysis in investment decisions
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Investment appraisal techniques
1. Introduction
As defined by Cistelecan, L. (2002) investment is an “expenditure made now in order to obtain a successful future, making gains in the future”. Investment is an essential vital issue for companies, because it can ensure the growth and the development of the companies, and without it companies can’t survive in the competitive markets. (Katalininc, B. 2009)
There are two types of investment as stated by Virlics, A. (2013). These types are fix investment and monetary investments. Fix investments are tangible assets, such as buildings, machinery or a plant. On the other hand, monetary investments are stocks and bonds.
On another point of view and as stated by Götze, U., Northcott, D. & Schuster, P. (2008), investment can be categorized by the cause of the investment as the following:
Foundational investment.
Current investment.
Replacement investment.
Maintenance or repairmen.
Supplementary investment.
Expansion investment.
Change investment (e.g. rationalization, diversification).
Certainty investment.
Making the right decision to invest or not is not a simple process. Without a sound and clear image of the future of the opportunities, companies may go on bankruptcy. Another point, a lack of proper information about the investment may lead to wrong decisions, and therefore a well-defined method of investment appraisal is required.
The need for investment appraisal techniques in the process of decision making is justified by Katalinic, B. (2009) as the following:
New opportunities for the developing and the improvement of the company may be provided by a full analysis of the investment.
Investment is associated with the reallocation of resources and cash, which makes a carefu...
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...(1). Published by DAAAM international, Vienna, Austria.
Shively, G. & Galopin, M. (2000). An Overview of Benefit-Cost Analysis. Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics. [online]. [Accessed 2 April 2014]. Available at: http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/staff/shively/COURSES/AGEC406/reviews/bca.htm
The Manage Mentor Electronic Academy (TMM E Academy). (2003). Net Present Value. [online]. [Accessed 2 April 2014]. Available at: http://www.themanagementor.com/enlightenmentorareas/finance/mgr/NetPresentVal.htm
Virlics, A. (2009). Investment Decision Making and Risk. International Economic Conference of Sibiu 2013 Post Crisis Economy: Challenges and Opportunities. Published by Elsevier B.V, Faculty of Economic Science, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu.
Watt, A. (2009). Understanding payback on investments. NZ business Magazine. Published by Adrenalin Publishing.
Overview of the organizations financial performance and its ability to invest in establishing a new unit will enable the ...
... Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment", The American Economic Review, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 261-297.
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Dommen, Arthur & Carl Mabbs-Zeno. 1989. Subsidy Equivalents: Yardsticks of Government Intervention in Agriculture for the GATT. United States Department of Agriculture: Washington D.C.
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... stock fluctuations. If a financial advisor cannot be afforded, it would have been in the best interest of the investor to read more on the stock market news regarding what stocks were predicted to have a profitable growth. The investor could have stayed with energy and renewables, just cold have chosen different corporations then the ones chosen.
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Should financial decisions be put on hold until the markets become stronger? Is it more profitable to act now to better position the company’s market share?” These are all questions that could be clearly answered if the managers had a magical financial crystal ball. In lieu of the crystal ball, managers have a way of calculating the financial risks with some certainty to better predict positive financial investment outcomes through the discounted cash flow valuation (DCF). DCF valuation is a realistic approach, a tool used, to “determine the future and present value of investments with multiple cash flows” over a particular period of time which is incurred at the end of each period (Ross, Westerfield, & Jordan, 2011). Solutions Matrix defines DCF as a “cash flow summary adjusted so as to reflect the time value of money (The Meaning of Discounted Cash Flow, 2014).” The valuation of money paid or received in the future has less monetary value if that same money was to be received or paid today (The Meaning of Discounted Cash Flow, 2014). This cash flow evaluation helps managers in their determination whether or not to invest in research and development, purchase more equipment, enlarge floor space, and increase laborers, or instead, retain net profits. Either way, the DCF valuation gives
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