War On Terror: COG Analysis

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According to Clausewitz (1832) “war is… an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will” (p. 75). The War on Terror is no different. As the U.S. continues to “pursue a strategy for the world we seek” (The White House, 2011, p. 2), we must recognize that our adversaries are doing the same. Thus, the War on Terror is a war of ideas, “ideas powerful enough to provoke violent emotions” (Echevarria, 2003, p. 15) resulting in wanton violence and a blatant disregard for human life. It is this aspect of the War on Terror, the ideological aspect, which make this war unwinnable. Despite this bleak prognosis, the United States and its allies can still take steps to render the efforts of terror groups and, indeed, the groups themselves ineffective …show more content…

More than targets of opportunity, COGs represent strategic objectives. Objectives that, if properly acted upon, can lead to the eventual defeat of our adversaries. Furthermore, a comprehensive COG analysis deftly identifies three criticalities essential to a COG’s success; critical capabilities (CC), critical requirements (CR) and critical vulnerabilities (CV). When looked upon holistically, a picture of the enemy’s strengths and weaknesses emerges. To use Eikmeier’s (2007) words, “the framework’s three simple questions—What is the desired end-state? How can it be achieved? What resources are required?—is systems theory boiled down to its essential elements in support of COG analysis” (p. 63). Therefore, to effectively counter terrorism, the United States cannot have a single counterterrorism strategy. Rather, multiple, group specific strategies are required that identify and act against the COG or COGs which provide these groups with the strength needed to advance their ideological goals. To that end, the following recommendations are made:
1. Using the threat assessment methodology (Appendix D, p. vii), the U.S. should take steps to categorize terror groups based on their capability, intent and presence in relation to U.S. interests at home and abroad. The application of a standardized assessment permits the U.S. to rank known terror groups in a logical manner …show more content…

Having conducted a COG analysis, the U.S. should develop group specific strategies to address the five most violent/dangerous terror groups. These strategies must focus on the COG or COGs identified in the previous analysis, attack, both directly and indirectly, the identified critical requirements and critical vulnerabilities and encompass all aspects of our national power (diplomatic, information, military, economic, financial, intelligence and law enforcement).
5. Once developed, strategies should be reviewed bi-annually or as the strategic, operational or tactical picture changes. This approach will ensure two things. First, each strategy will be updated at least once during a Presidential term. Second, the analysis process will not stagnate, thus ensuring strategies remain relevant across administrations. Failing to recognize the importance of centers of gravity, ultimately leads to obsessively vague strategies, wrought with rhetoric and having little chance of success. Lewis (2014) states the importance succinctly when she writes, “policymakers must move beyond the assessment phase and begin building a comprehensive strategy. This effort must begin with a close examination of the sources of strength, intentions, and vulnerabilities [of our terrorist adversaries]… Only then can a coherent counter-strategy emerge” (p. 4). Indeed, to defeat the Islamic State, al-Shabaab, AQAP and other known terrorist groups, the U.S. must align its counterterrorism objectives

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