The book The Black Swan: The Impact of the HIGHLY IMPROBABLE, written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; introduces the idea(s) of the black swan theory. The term black swan theory is a metaphor used to describe an event that comes as a surprise and has a major effect. Assumptions were all swans were white, however they are not as there was a rare discovery of black swans in Western Australia in 1697, by a Dutch explorer. Taleb, the author of this book is also the founder of the Black Swan Theory as he uses his background in philosophy and mathematics to describe randomness and uncertainty in society and everyday life.
According to the Black Swan Theory, unpredictable events are much more common than one who would think. History has demonstrated several unpredictable and/or rare events in the past, such as The Great Depression after WWII, which was an indirect effect of the stock market crash known as Black Tuesday. Other Black Swan events include, but not limited to , Hurricane
Katrina, Rita, Sandy; the 1906 San Francisco earthquakes; the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918; the 1993 World Trad...
Nextly, the stock market crash also caused the economic fallout which resulted in the Great Depression. Because “Black Tuesday” wiped away billions of dollars and thousands of investors, it caused a great amount of economic fallout. When “Black Tuesday” struck Wall Street on October 29th, 1929, investors traded 16 million shares on the the New York Stock Exchange in just a day which caused billions of dollars to be lost and thousands of investors who got all their money wiped out. After the fallout of “Black Tuesday” America’s industrialized country fell into the Great Depression, which was one of the longest economic downfalls in the history of the Western industrialized world.
In 1992, hurricane Andrew was a category four hurricane and said to be one of the worst natural disasters to happen in the United States at the time. It’s winds surpassed 160 miles per hour and caused damage to over 125,000 homes within 400 square miles. Hurricane Andrew left approximately 175,000 families and children temporarily homeless.
On August 24th, 1992 in the state of Florida, complete destruction was the end result of Hurricane Andrew. A Hurricane that began in the Atlantic ocean at 20mph. That is almost twice the strength that normal hurricanes begin at. The peak strength of Hurricane Andrew was so strong that devices were not able to measure the winds. An approximation of the force of the winds was said to be up to 200mph. Andrew destroyed about 28,000 homes, damaged 100,000 homes and left 250,000 people homeless along with 30 billion dollars in damage and almost 30 deaths. Hurricane Andrew did not end its devastation in Florida, soon it went to Louisiana causing more damage. (Fig.1)
It is often said that perception outweighs reality and that is often the view of the stock market. News that a certain stock may be on the rise can set off a buying spree, while a tip that one may be on decline might entice people to sell. The fact that no one really knows what is going to happen one way or the other is inconsequential. John Kenneth Galbraith uses the concept of speculation as a major theme in his book The Great Crash 1929. Galbraith’s portrayal of the market before the crash focuses largely on massive speculation of overvalued stocks which were inevitably going to topple and take the wealth of the shareholders down with it. After all, the prices could not continue to go up forever. Widespread speculation was no doubt a major player in the crash, but many other factors were in play as well. While the speculation argument has some merit, the reasons for the collapse and its lasting effects had many moving parts that cannot be explained so simply.
The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was one of the largest earthquakes in the United States. Even though it only lasted less than a minute, the damages and aftermath of the earthquake were disastrous. These damages were not just from the earthquake, but also from other hazards that occurred because of it. It also had a huge effect on the people living in San Francisco. Many people, the government, and other countries helped the city of San Francisco with relief goods like food and clothing. The city used up their resources in order to rebuild the city and spent a lot of money. This earthquake also started a scientific revolution about earthquakes and its effects.
Starr, Kevin. “The Great Earthquake and Firestorms of 1906: How San Francisco Nearly Destroyed Itself.” University of California Press. 83:3 (2006): 45-61. Web. 16 April. 2014. http://www.jstor.org/stable/25161821
Hurricane Katrina a catastrophe that changed lives of many peoples, people were left without food and water for days. That storm itself did a great damage lead to the massive flooding,
A.S.A. & Co. “Hurricane History Facts.” New York Times, New York Times. 17 Jan. 2008. The 'Standard' Web.
Through the path of history, there have been several major events that influenced thousands of lives and were significant in forming the world today. One of the largest and deadliest events that occurred in history was a disaster not anybody could control or be held accountable for. This was Hurricane Katrina. On the early Monday morning of August 29th, 2005, a Category 5 rating Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast of the United States with winds up to 175 miles per hour and a storm surge of 20 feet high. Hurricane Katrina was one of the greatest and most destructive natural disasters recorded to make landfall in the United States. The natural causes of the hurricane, poorly structured levees, disaster inside the Superdome, and the
The Black Swan is a book about the importance of the unexpected. Taleb used the allegory of the Black Swan to explain how people often expect what is known and seem to forget that an unknown event can happen. The Black Swan metaphor was drawn from earlier beliefs that Black Swans don’t exist. Before the year 1697, no one has ever been reported to have seen a black swan. Consequently, people believed that all swans were white.
In 2007, Odyssey Marine Exploration, a marine treasure hunting company, found a Spanish colonial-era shipwreck while surveying the waters off of Gibraltar for the colonial-era HMS Merchant Royal wreck. Odyssey salvaged the wreck, code-named Black Swan, in secret, recovering 594,000 silver coins estimated to be worth $500 million. After salvaging the coins, Odyssey transported them to the US for auction to the public. The ship was later confirmed to the Nuestra Señora de las Mercedes, a Spanish war frigate sunk by British ships in 1804 after it was blown off course returning from Peru. The Mercedes carried a mostly civil cargo comprising of Peruvian silver and several citizens’ personal cargos. Shortly after Odyssey publicly announced its find,
The Influenza Pandemic of 1918 had a major effect on the public health in America at the time. Coordination between different levels and branches of government improved communication regarding the spread of influenza, improved the amount of people in hospitals, increased the spread of vaccines, and led to improvements in infection control and containment of the flu. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1997248/).
“The Spanish Flu Epidemic Begins: March 11, 1918." Global Events: Milestone Events Throughout History. Ed. Jennifer Stock. Vol. 6: North America. Farmington Hills, MI: Gale, 2013. World History in Context. Web. 9 Mar. 2014.
Every year, many natural disasters happen around the world. In New Orleans, and several other states, a devastating hurricane struck. High-speed winds and major flooding caused many people to lose their homes and even their lives. Many people have heard of Hurricane Katrina, but not everybody knows what caused it and the affect it had on the United States. On the early morning of August 29th, 2005 on the Gulf Shore near New Orleans, a devastating hurricane struck.
Hurricanes occur all over the world, at different times, but commonly through June first and late November. However in late August 2005 a catastrophic hurricane struck. This was Hurricane Katrina. With winds traveling over one hundred miles per hour making it a category five on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Scale it was said to have cause billions of dollars’ worth of damage. Hurricane Katrina flooded nearly forty thousand homes, and killed at least two thousand people (“Hurricane”). An average category five hurricane has enough energy to power street lamps for more than twenty seven thousand hours (Williams 58). Knowing about Hurricane Katrina, and the devastation of the city in New Orleans would be beneficial. Also, general information on hurricanes can help civilians and people of higher authority better understand and prepare for damage that could once hit their town and community. Because experts know the general information on these storms they can help explain to the public why and how Hurricane Katrina and other hurricanes occur. Hopefully, in the future civilians will know and use this information to their advantage against hurricanes.