We are constantly asked about our opinions. From asking questions about who you think will win the super bowl, what celebrity wore the best dress on the red carpet to who will you be voting for president. Public opinion polls are everywhere. Politicians have long relied on public opinion polls throughout presidential elections. Unfortunately, public opinion polls are not always a good source to rely on. A good example is in 1948 when the Chicago daily tribune announced a winner for a presidential election. The famous headline “Dewey Defeats Truman”. The tribune had relied on polls to come to that conclusion. This is a mistake that most likely will keep on happening because public opinion polls are either inaccurate or misleading mostly because
In the wake of the 2016 general election, Michael Lind published a piece on The Smart Set entitled: Can Electoral Reform Save America? This piece centered around a single question on the ballot of a single state, question 5 in Maine, and the impact on electoral reform it could have for the country according to Lind. Using deconstruction, Lind analyzes the idea of a Ranked Choice polling system, rather than the first-past-the-post system that is currently in place in the United States. His allusions to the past as well as separate government entities globally, as well as a deconstruction of both polling systems and the impact they have (or could have) allows the reader to absorb information and produce their own personal opinion.
The voter ID issue starts with certain laws that, in the US, require that a person show a form of official ID before they are allowed to register to vote. This issue has split both Republicans and Democrats. According to Kenneth Jost, “republicans say [voter-ID laws] are needed to prevent fraud and protect the integrity of elections. Democrats say the laws are not needed and are being pushed in order to reduce voting among groups that skew Democratic in elections especially Latinos and African Americans” (Jost, p. 171). Both of these perspectives are valid, and with an open mind, can both sides have important points about the validity and inclusion of elections. On one hand, it is crucial to prevent fraud and keep the elections free of error, otherwise the outcome could be an unfair ruling. On the other side of the argument, voter-ID laws can cause discrimination and prevent people from voting, also
... in question are complex,” and “either side of these debates are often well argued” (378). He proposes that we seek understanding from both sides of the aisle, so that way we may have opinions substantiated by fact. As Zinser puts it, “[a]n informed public is the grease that keeps democracy running properly” (364). Democracy is contingent upon the citizens of America being thoroughly informed about important issues and using that information when it is time to make a decision at the voting booth. The media is rampant with false information, radical ideologies, and skewed perspectives that influence our decisions. Therefore, as Americans it is important that we actively seek the information in order to form our own opinions because passive absorption without scrutiny leaves us vulnerable to strong, influential ideologies that may not represent our beliefs and values.
In the Electoral College system, every state has one electoral vote for each congressman and senator. Congressman is allotted by population and every state has two senators, so Rhode Island, which has basically nobody in it, has three electoral votes. California, with 53 representatives and two senators, has 55 electoral votes. The states choose electors and the electors meet in what is called the Electoral College to pick a president. In practice, nearly every state has passed a law that the electors will all vote for the popular vote winner in their state, but as the Supreme Court said in Bush v. Gore, the people of the United States do not have a constitutional right to pick the president. A state could, if it felt like it, select the electors
How could this be? How did the commander and chief of what could be considered the greatest victory in modern American history defeat the Iraqi army and one year later lose the election for the presidency? The answers to these questions, as well as explanations for the outcome, lie within the campaign strategies and tactics used by each candidate. There were various major political events and public opinion data that occurred throughout the general election stage of the campaign. This paper will analyze both the political events and the public opinion data, in hopes of developing a better understanding as to what helped shape the overall outcome.
Poll data seems to suggest that in general public's evaluation presidential greatness is shortsighted. When asked to identify whom they considered the greatest president, over 53% voted for a president whose term in office occurred after the latter half of the 20th century. Of the 17 presidents who received votes, 11 had served after 1950 and only four served prior to 1900. At the top of the list was Ron...
Over the last few years polling has become a vital part of the United States election process. The media as well as the voting population take into consideration the results of various political polls, but in most cases the polls do not accurately represent the views of a population effectively. The media’s failure in presenting polls through television broadcasting has led to distorted data, and an overflow of political polls in America. The inclusion of media to presidential elections has allowed many political leaders to undermine their competitors, and bolster their chances of winning by falsely representing themselves to the many American viewers. Despite the many advances in the polling techniques, and the increasing role of the media in elections, the polls conducted do not accurately represent the views of Americans.
The 2000 Presidential Election has done nothing if not raise serious questions about our election process. Lack of standardization in the voting process, methods of vote tabulation and the media’s role in determining the outcome of an election have all come under scrutiny. The question raised most often, however, seems to be about the Electoral College, and it’s validity as part of the election process in the 21st Century.
Zorn, Eric. “One thing polls show accurately: Changed minds." Chicago Tribune Nov 9, 2004: 1.
In the last three decades, polls became an important instrument for the media, especially television networks, to determine who wins and who loses the election. Caprini conducted a study about the impact of the early prediction of a winner in the 1980 presidential race by the television networks. He observed that, shortly after 8 p.m. Eastern standard time, NBC announced that, according to its analysis of exit poll data, Ronald Reagan was to be the next president of the United States (Caprini, 1984, p. 866). That early call was controversial because the polls in many states were still open at the time and, in some of th...
How to know if you are being lied to by polls Politicians can use different methods to win elections. They often use 2 tactics: promotion of the own candidate and blackening of rivals. Push polls are one of the examples of the second category. It is “an interactive marketing technique, most commonly employed during political campaigning, in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of voters under the guise of conducting a poll” (Wikipedia, 2015). Campaigners do not even need to say the actual facts from politician's biography or lie about them.
The Advantages and Limitations of Social Surveys in Sociological Research To survey something, is to carry out a systematic overview so that a researcher can produce a comprehensive general report on it. Survey method is often used by positivist sociologists seeking to test their hypotheses, and to investigate causes and examine variables. As with every other sociological research, survey has its own advantages and limitations. Positivist research, which is in the scientific tradition, begins with a hypothesis that can be either confirmed or rejected according to the data collected. One of the significant advantages of survey method is that, it can be used to collect data that is a representative of a larger population.
Polls have a role in political campaigns and shaping government policies but recently the reliability of polls have come into question. The Republican polls provided the information to Presidential candidate Mitt Romney that he had a strong chance of winning key battle ground states. The polls showed "he had at least 267 out of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election" (Hoffman). When watching the election night returns the reality was Romney only received 206 Electoral College votes far away from the magic number needed to win or tie the national election. The candidate’s team used these polls and focused on states that showed a strong chance to gain votes. Romney focused his energy in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both states he eventually lost.
We vote as a country to elect one person who will occupy the steering wheel of our country, whether that representative gets us on the right track or drives off the cliff is completely up to the voters. Sure your vote might be lost is a sea of thousands and make no difference which way the election goes. However, as many fail to realize “popular opinion” is not a singular opinion, it is the thoughts of thousands standing together to push one singular message. Which granted can be quite intimidating when that crowd of thousands has an opinion that doesn 't share your values. “Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions." (Einstein, 1953) As Einstein said, most people are not able to express or even form opinions when they are not shared by others. However, when it comes to the elections, your opinion is not alone. Look at the presidential race of 2008. “Hillary Clinton continues to have a substantial lead over the group of Democrats vying to win the party 's nomination for president in 2008. Obama remains a solid second, as he has been all year…” (Carol, 2007) President Obama was portrayed by the media as the “unpopular candidate” the “underdog” “someone who would never stand in the whitehouse” but look at him now. After two consecutive terms serving as president he proves that
Participation can be seen as “the inclusion of a diverse range of stakeholder contributions in an on-going community development process, from identification of problem areas, to the development, implementation and management of strategic planning” (Schafft and Greenwood, 2003, p. 19).