Paul's What You Cant Expect When You Re Expecting

LEVEL 1
Conclusion of main argument: Paul’s main argument in What You Can’t Expect When You’re Expecting is that it is impossible to make certain decisions rationally by imagining what it would be like if you chose one choice vs the other. This argument centers around decisions that involve transformative experiences; these experiences can be epistemically transformative in that one does not have the adequate information to predict what an experience will be like or personally transformative in that the experience may change what a person is like (i.e. their values, beliefs, likes, etc). Paul uses the example of choosing whether or not to have a child to demonstrate her thesis. She states that one cannot rationally decide whether or not to have a child because they cannot know what it will be like for them, specifically, to have a child unless they actually have one. Conversely, one cannot know what it will be like if they do not have a child unless they go through life without one. Although one may listen to the anecdotes of other or look at

Phenomenal outcomes are unpredictable in Paul’s argument because a current experience that one uses as a reference now may not be an accurate description of what it would be like to have that experience after experiencing a transformative experience. For example, you may use the fact that you like to sleep through the night as a reference for why you choose not to have a child. Currently, you like sleeping, so you assume that your future self will also like sleeping. However, if you choose to have a child, it is possible that your preference for sleep will change if the satisfaction of caring for your baby is greater than the satisfaction you get from sleeping. Therefore, you have not accurately predicted the value of choosing not to have a child, making your decision