Miracle or Malthus

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Population growth has always been a controversial issue for the world. Developed countries which are characterized by an aging population favor population growth, however less developed countries see population growth as bad. Population growth and control has been one of the major concerns in the developing world, however Africa’s demographic situation seems to be different from the other developing countries. The article “Africa’s population: Miracle or Malthus?” discusses whether Africa will face disaster (as in Malthus’s theory) or demographic dividend and studies the various determinants of high but slowly decreasing fertility rates in African countries. The following paper will study why Africa is an outlier in the developing world and why education is a crucial tool for reducing the African fertility rates.
African demography is unique
African demography is exceptional because of its significantly growing population. African developed countries are facing substantially high population growth rates which are causing a lot of worries recalling Malthus’ hypotheses. In fact, the Malthusian theory states that the arithmetic increase of food production will not keep up with the exogenous geometric growth of population, and thus will increase the difficulty of subsistence. Of course this model has been proved to be wrong especially since industrialization, but still it somewhat explains why developed countries among them Africa have a negative point of view of population growth which will cause issues in accommodating the population’s needs and exercise pressure on the country’s resources. However, empirical evidence shows that even though Africa is facing many stalls, it is actually moving towards low fertility rates. The develop...

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...n policy with the introduction of the Universal Primary Education (UPE) program, and show that “an additional year of schooling reduces the number of children born before age 25 by 0.26”. Similarly, an additional year in Schultz’s studies presented a fertility reduction of 13%. Schultz also affirms in his studies that family planning as well as other factors do not have a negative correlation with fertility as much as education does. Moreover, 13 out of 14 countries in a study done by Ainsworth et al. (1996) conform to the hypothesis of education reducing fertility. In addition any action taken that is related to education can have a noticeable impact on fertility. For example, providing free school uniforms for children in Kenya encouraged the girls to stay in school and actually reduced the fertility by 3% (from 14% to 11%) (Duflo, Deupas Kremer and Sinei, 2006).

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