Empirical Relationship between the Price of Gold and Three Other Variables

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Gold is a type of precious metal with many excellent characteristics. It’s popularly used to decorate luxurious jewelries. With the improving standard of living and increasing income, people consume demand more and more gold. Because its unique physical properties of gold, it’s also widely used in modern high-tech industries such as electronics, telecommunications, aerospace, chemical and so forth.

In the history, gold has been used as measure of value, means of circulation, means of payment and even world currency where major currencies were tied to the supply of gold. After the collapse of Gold Standard in the 1970, the monetary function of gold disappeared. At present, however, most central banks hold gold as part of reserves. In the wake of financial crisis 2007-2009, gold price increased rapidly until recently the gold price has decreased roughly 70% from its all time high.

This paper aims to provide a statistical analysis and explanation of the empirical relationship between gold price and other three variables: nominal interest rate, real interest rate, Japan/US and Swiss/US exchange rates and crude oil price. International Fisher Effect (Fisher, 1930) suggests higher interest rate implies higher inflation; therefore domestic exchange rate should depreciate due to higher expected inflation in the future. In other words, the interest rate is perfectly correlated with expected inflation and the domestic exchange rate should be negatively correlated with domestic price level. According to many empirical researches on market efficiency, the foreign exchange market was proven to have the characteristics of an efficient market, so we have a semi-strong-form efficient market (Fama, 1970) where prices reflect all public...

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...and causal relationships between West Taxas Intermediate Crude Oil and futures gold prices and found that an long-run relationship exists between gold return and oil return. Also, the causality relationship indicates a long run relationship between them.

Kuntara Pukthuanthong and Richard Roll (2011) studied the relationship between gold and USD/Yen, US/Euro, and US/Pound exchange rates and found hat gold returns in a currency are related with currency depreciation most of the time for the countries including US, Japan, Euro zone area and Britain. This study also found that Gold prices expressed in different currencies are highly correlated, around 0.9 using daily gold returns in the four major currencies studied. Gold prices at level are moderately correlated with the price of foreign currency. In most periods, gold is associated with weakness in a currency.

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