Delphi Method Influence in Sales Forecasting

647 Words2 Pages
bulb-icon

Recommended: The Delphi technique is a systematic, interactive forecasting procedure based on independent and anonymous input regarding future events

Sales forecasting is an important part of business. Sales forecasts are crucial in developing business plans, production schedules, budgets, advertising and marketing plans, etc. as the forecasts drive decisions around sales prices, production costs, strategic operations and more (Hicham, Mohammed, & Anas, 2012). The Delphi Method as described by Dalkey and Helmer (1963) utilizes questionnaires to gather key information from a variety experts to form a consensus. Businesses are then able to use this information in their long-range forecasting (Sharp, n.d.). This work will discuss the Delphi Method and how it is utilized in sales forecasting in businesses today.
The Delphi Method
In the 1950s, the United States Air Force sought to answer strategic questions that were difficult to test. In order to determine the amount of munitions needed to take out certain targets, the military employed several strategic analysts to tackle the problem by utilizing a series of questionnaires (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963). The developers of the technique wanted to allow panel members “to conceptualize in realistic terms the problems on which they were working, rather than in theoretical terms” (Sharp, n.d., para. 7). In order to do this, panelists would be given questionnaires that addressed a specific question. The participants were then asked to give their responses as well as insight on how they reached those answers. Panelists were allowed to utilize their own research but were discouraged from discussing the work with anyone else. They were also allowed to ask questions of the researchers that would help answer the initial question. The information is gathered from the panelists, reviewed and then follow up questions are asked. The question and an...

... middle of paper ...

...N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467. Retrieved from https://ehis-ebscohost-com.csuglobal.idm.oclc.org/ehost
Hicham, A., Mohammed, B., & Anas, S. (2012). Hybrid intelligent system for sale forecasting using Delphi and adaptive fuzzy back-propagation neural networks. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, 3(11). http://dx.doi.org/10.14569/IJACSA.2012.031120
Ismail, Z. H., & Ahamad, M. H. (2003). Delphi improves sales forecasts: Malaysia’s electronic companies’ experience. Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 22(2), 22. Retrieved from https://ehis-ebscohost-com.csuglobal.idm.oclc.org/ehost
Sharp, A. G. (n.d.). Reference for Business: Encyclopedia of Business (2nd ed.). Retrieved from http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia

Show More
Related

  • Analysis Of The Book ' Wargaming For Leaders '

    1040 Words  | 3 Pages

    The text begins by examining a series of wargames developed for the military and the federal government to determine the best options for growing problems around the world (Mark Herman). Additionally, the ground work is placed to outline the goals which are expected by the client. The developers of the simulation begin by finding, with the greatest precision possible, what goals the client plays to achieve (Mark Herman). Moreover, the developers ask a number of questions, to include, is the client needing confirmation of an existing strategy, are they looking for potential weaknesses in their operation, are they looking to develop a new product, and the client needs validation to move forward with the introduction (Mark Herman). If during the test a fundamental weakness or an unforeseen problem arises the methodology is reworked and the test can be run again, all this is done long before any substantial money has been lost. Furthermore, if these tests are conducted by the military, a strategy for either a war time crisis or a civil catastrophe can be formulated long before human live is placed in harm’s way.

    Read More

  • Corporate Responsibilities

    1045 Words  | 3 Pages

    Works Cited The Allbusiness Web site provides answers and articles about corporations. http://www.allbusiness.com Retrieved May 22, 2011. Mallor, J., Barnes, A.J., Bowers, T., & Langvardt, A.W. (2010). The 'Standard' of the 'Standard'.

    Read More

  • RBC Financial Group Case Analysis

    736 Words  | 2 Pages

    RBC Financial Group uses a customer relationship management (CRM) strategy that provides a variety of services for a variety of clients. The strategy allows for individual customers to trust RBC and develop a personal relationship with each and every client. One major factor that allows CRM to operate effectively is the use of technologies and analytics to help classify each client’s financial situation. These customer profitability-based techniques allowed RBC to categorize their clients into A, B, and C groups so that the sales teams could optimize their efforts in catering to these different clients. This strategy holds the following strengths: optimizing sales efforts to different customers, easily accessible electronic sales leads, centralized and standardized financial decisions, and building personalized and sustainable customer relationships. There are a few weaknesses to the system though including the complexity in predicting future positions of companies despite the use of analytics as well as the complexity in creating consistency when using these

    Read More

  • Organizational Behavior Concepts Of AT&T

    1865 Words  | 4 Pages

    Wire, B. (2003, April 9). BNET. Retrieved February 22, 2008, from BNET Business Network: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2003_April_9/ai_99819475

    Read More

  • Importance Of The Army Problem Solving Process

    1426 Words  | 3 Pages

    Identification of the problem-Herein lies the crucial first step in the Army’s Problem Solving Process. Initially a leader must determine the totality of the given situation, determine where the problem originated, and determine the “Who, What, When, Where and Why” answers to the source of the problem. Gathering of information-This step in the process is the most fluid. Understanding the problem at the user level is critical; therefore, defining the problem in this process is mandatory to ensure that everyone involved understands every facet of the problem statement. Development of criteria-While defining criteria to solve a problem, Army officers form two subsets; a screening set and an evaluation set. The screening set of criteria are parameters set by the leadership attempting to solve a problem to ensure the result of the decision made is a manageable success. The evaluation criteria consists of five validating elements. The elements of the evaluation criteria are; a short title; well defined; and the criteria must be of a standard unit of measure. Additionally, the problem solver must establish a benchmark that allows, the problem solver, to

    Read More

  • Operational Design

    692 Words  | 2 Pages

    Design is a focused inquiry that enables the commander and staff to make sense of a complex situation, capture that understanding,17 and share the resulting cognitive map. Commanders use design to frame the environment, identify conditions contrary to US national interests, and describe the tensions resident in potential future conditions that describe a problem we must solve or manage. From that understanding of the environment, a critical analysis of the problem compared to the desired outcome based on projected future conditions occurs. The products of environmental and problem framing lead to the development of potential solutions. The design method is iterative, relies upon constant inquiry, and is inherently non-linear. Systems thinking and discourse based upon learning and assessments enable design and continue throughout planning and execution.18 For example, in Kosovo the desired political solution (essentially a Serbian-free Kosovo province) was developed in isolation from the realities of the environment. The strategic end state failed to consider the existing conditions, the potential actors, the tendencies within the environment, internal and external relationships, the patterns of resistance, as well as the opposition to or support of any proposed solutions. The 78-day bombing

    Read More

  • SWOT Analysis: Dynamic Strategic Management

    702 Words  | 2 Pages

    Addressing the trials of operating in a continually changing environment and realizing forecasts can only

    Read More

  • What Are The Strengths And Weaknesses Of SAP SCM?

    536 Words  | 2 Pages

    According to Gartner, SAP SCM accounts for about 19 % of the global market share (“SAP Software Review”, 2014). SAP has very good lineup of Supply Chain Management software features and robust functionality (“SAP Supply Chain Management", 2014, 2014). SAP SCM is already integrated and used by many global companies around the world. An interesting feature of SAP SCM is its upgradability .Recent survey says that 67% of the users have upgraded after the extended maintenance agreement was up and 95% of SAP users are planning to upgrade from their previous versions (Wailgum, 2012). SAP SCM comes up with a set of powerful tools which exceed the business process automation, thereby helping the global organizations in making strategic management decisions by reporting future needs (“SAP Software Review”, 2014). With SAP multiple forecast modeling techniques are available and it also selects the best fit model. This accurate forecasting is achieved by incorporating factors such as trends in product lifecycle, bill of materials, causal forecasting in addition to demand history. Th...

    Read More

  • Airline Revvenue Management

    877 Words  | 2 Pages

    ... demand as a function of marketing variables, such as price or promotion. These involve building specialized forecasts such as market response models or cross price elasticity estimates to predict customer behavior at certain price points. By combining these forecasts with calculated price sensitivities and price ratios, a Revenue Management System can then quantify these benefits and develop price optimization strategies to maximize revenue.

    Read More

  • Target Corporation Organizational Structure

    1233 Words  | 3 Pages

    Target Corporation needs to increase product availability based on the customer needs using a forecasting and supply chain

    Read More

  • Management Consulting and Decision Making

    2332 Words  | 5 Pages

    ...ias, O. (2010). Lectures on Management Consulting, MBA Course 2010/11, University of Bradford, School of Management, 17/01/2011.

    Read More

  • Pick n Pay Case Study: King Code Adherence

    2292 Words  | 5 Pages

    Russel Y., Topper S., Akerman L., Oliveira J., Strydom Z.; 2013; Studying Business NSC Business Studies Grade 12; 2013 Edition; Paardekraal; Excom Publishers; 26/05/2014

    Read More

  • Cash Management

    1080 Words  | 3 Pages

    McHugh, J. M., McHugh, S. M., & Nickels, W. G. (1999). Understanding business. (5th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.

    Read More

  • Essay On Forecasting

    554 Words  | 2 Pages

    the purpose of this report is to explore about forecasting and its techniques and its implementation in the real world it means that we will put a company present and past data into different forecasting mathematical formulas and will analyze it results. In today’s era Forecasting is a key factor to run a long term business as it is related with the upcoming future events, with the help of forecasting we actually estimates or predict the future. We people also do forecasting in our daily life form the early morning to late night we perform allot of tasks with the help of present, yesterday, last week, last month or last year records and data. When talking about Organizations they use different types of forecasting such as Economic forecasting, Technological forecasting and Demand forecasting we will also discuss several steps for making an efficient forecasting (yongmi, 2014).

    Read More

  • Business Forecast

    1434 Words  | 3 Pages

    This Paper examines and compares various forecasting techniques used for qualitative and quantitative business forecasting and their use in Firstlogic Inc., to forecast the demand under conditions of uncertainty. Time series and Delphi forecasting methods are considered for this research to evaluate their ability to make effective decisions regarding the future.

    Read More

More about Delphi Method Influence in Sales Forecasting

Open Document