Egyptian Presidential Election Forecasting

“I came here for the first time today because this cabinet is a failure; Mubarak is still meeting the same ugly faces,” said Afaf Naged, a member of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Egypt (Wright, 2011). “The last elections were 100 percent rigged,” continued Said Gharib, a member of the opposition Ghad party. “We are staying until Mubarak goes and I hope it will spread to other squares in Egypt” (Wright, 2011).

This was the scene in Egypt’s Tahrir Square more than a year ago, amid the largest protests Egypt and the entire Middle East had seen in a well over generation. With parliamentary elections held several months ago that drew unprecedented worldwide attention, it’s hard to discount the upcoming presidential elections as holding anything but monumental importance for the future of Egypt. The entire world will be training their eyes on Egypt as millions file into voting booths this upcoming May 23rd and 24th.

Perhaps just as surprising as the unrest that swept former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak out of power more than a year ago is the current slate of presidential contenders seeking to be the first to fill his position. Amid the millions that gathered in Tahrir Square demanding the resignation of Hosni Mubarak, there was a seeming unanimity among those protesting that anyone associated with the old regime would be completely unacceptable. As the Associated Press’s most recent dispatch from Cairo begins, “The race for Egypt’s first president after ousted autocrat Hosni Mubarak was not supposed to look like this” (Hendawi, 2012).

Even to close observers of Egypt’s political system, this presidential race is defying what most had expected just months ago. Amr Moussa, the former Arab League chief and foreig...

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