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EGYPTIAN COUP OF 2013: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS Essay

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On July 3, 2013 Egyptian Defense Minister Abd al-Fattah as-Sisi in his address to the citizens declared the removal of the President Mohammed Moursi from his position and suspension of the December 2012 constitution. Thus, a short but unique period of "the Muslim Brotherhood" reign came to an end.
M. Moursi during the first months of his reign faced the necessity of extremely unpopular policies to overcome socio-economic crisis in the country. A signal of its possible political consequences was voting at a referendum in December 2012 when the support for the constitution "pushed" by Islamists was not as obvious as it was in the case, for example, of March 2011 while voting for the adoption of temporary constitutional declaration or in the parliamentary elections in December 2011 – January 2012 . It was obvious that solving social and economic problems through popularization of Islam and populist slogans is impossible, and this meant that the president would either have to withdraw from the policy of Islamization that inevitably would lead to a split among the Islamists in Egypt, or pursue such policy and in this way all of the frustrations of not improving (even if not worsening) conditions of the population and unresolved social and economic problems would be firmly associated with the period of Islamists reign, which would dramatically affect their support of the citizens. However, Moursi was given a year to implement the Egyptian "economic miracle" that has not left the fifth Egyptian President chances to retain power.
However, if we observe the behavior of the main Egyptian stock indexes, we can identify some extremely interesting patterns. So, two days before the beginning of the protests against President Moursi, on June...


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...ficit of the country and halt the loss of foreign exchange reserves, and that is crucial for Egypt because it imports more than half of primary goods consumption and especially wheat . And, as it is known, wheat supply disruptions are painfully perceived by the Egyptians, as it is evidenced by the second wave of agflation (i.e., rising food prices), which we can confidently consider as one of the factors that led to growing discontent in the country in January 2011 . However, we should pay attention to the fact that even the administration of the «Muslim Brotherhood» has succeeded in slowing the rate of decline of the Egyptian pound to near-zero values . Under the new administration ("putschists") this trend only continued. At the same time, both of them had one and the same (and thus ultimately rather doubtful ) tool of strengthening – massive foreign borrowing.



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