Climate Change Effects Snowfall and Snowmelt in the Northern Rocky Mountains

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Climate change can affect the precipitation of snow and subsequent melting on a global scale in various ways. Increased global temperatures can affect the timing of the seasons, causing a delay in the first snowfall of winter and earlier spring melts. This lengthens the snow-free summer season. Additionally, there can be periods of warm, spring-like weather during winter. This can result in rain instead of snow. Warm periods can also induce premature and unusual melting during the typically cold winter months (Snow and Climate). These changes are represented in the region of focus: the northern Rocky Mountains from southern Montana to northern Alberta. Anthropogenically induced climate change and increased temperatures will likely affect the timing of first snowfall and snowmelt, alter the snow to rain ratio during the winter months, and cause abnormal melting mid-winter in the specified northern Rocky Mountain region.
Researchers from the Canadian Water Resources Association modified a Simulated Grid microclimate model (SIMGRID) and applied to a simulation of snow water equivalent (SWE) and spring streamflow volume. They tested the functionality of the new model using historical data from 1961-1990 and it was successful (Larson et al., Model Development, Calibration and Historical Analysis). Doing so allowed them apply the proven model to future climate scenarios.
In a second study they reviewed a series of global circulation models to estimate the trend and magnitude of possible changes in temperature and precipitation through the year 2099. The estimated increase in temperatures for that time period was between 2 and 6°C. The estimated increases in seasonal and annual precipitation were modest and not quantified in the report...

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...rtages in the future (Harris, Thinning Snows In Rockies Tied To Global Warming). The changing climate could also affect the fire season length and intensity (Larson et al., Runoff Change Projections Using Future Scenarios). These are just a few of the many possible implications of climate change’s effects on the snowfall and snowmelt in the northern Rocky Mountain region.
Climate change induced from anthropogenic sources will result in warmer global annually averaged temperatures. This means warmer seasons in the northern Rocky Mountain region. Warmer winter months will result in delayed snowfall, a negative change in the snow to rain ratio, and abnormal winter snow melting. Warmer spring months will result in earlier and more intense snowmelt. The implications that result from these changes will be many. Most notably, there will be concerns about water shortages.

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