For module five case assignment, we will define what a recession is and indicate whether we think another one is on the horizon. I will explain why I think a recession may be near. I will also explain what factors in the economy will have the biggest impact on the business cycle. Finally, I will discuss whether I think the business cycle is dead.
During the periods of September 2001 to November 2001 the U.S. experienced a terrible time in our country for our economy; it was a recession. Even though it was only for a short period of time and it wasn’t as bad as it sounds, there were people who got laid off from work, that suffered a decrease in personal income, and that felt the effects of the stock market decline. American’s felt that their comfortable lives were starting to unravel. This was not a “high point” for our economy and it’s definitely not what America wants to endure again. However, there has been talk that America may be close to another recession. A recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters when the economy shrinks. The size of the economy is measured by gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced within the United States. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession)1
The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles predicts growth in the gross domestic product of just over 1 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2008. Economic growth will remain "tepid" for the remainder of 2008 and return to 3 percent in 2009, said David Shulman, senior economist for the forecast. That growth is just above the traditional definition of a recession. "Of course, when the economy slows to a 1 percent pace, it runs the risk of falling into an actual recession”, Shulman wrote. (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/12/business/realestate/main3253507.shtml)2 The housing slump has been the biggest weight on the national economy. The combination of higher interest rates and weaker home prices during the housing slump had its toll on homeowners. Foreclosures have climbed to record highs as more and more overstretched people find it impossible to make their mortgage payments. Housing has played a critical role in the current economic expansion. About 30% of the employment growth nationally over the last 3 years was directly due to housing.
This paper aims to discuss the Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of the Great Recession and
Throughout all of my research over the recession of July 1990-March 1991 I have concluded that it was not one of the largest recessions the United States has ever seen, but it was also not the smallest. This recession was only eight months long and did some damage, but not a lot. The Gulf War had the biggest impact on this recession along with the oil spill causing a rise of oil prices. The economy hit a low point and was not able to come out of it until the following year after the recession had already technically ended. Unemployment rates were at a low point towards the ending of the recession and because companies were hesitant about hiring new employees’ unemployment did not start getting better until the following year after the recession ended.
Many people today would consider the 2008, United States financial crisis a simple “malfunction” or “mistake”, but it was nothing close to that. Contrary to what many believe, renowned economists and financial advisors regarded the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 to be the most devastating crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930’s. To make matters worse, the decline in the economy expanded nationwide, resulting in the recession of 2007 to 2009 (Brue). David Einhorn, CEO of GreenHorn Capital, even goes as far as to say "What strikes me the most about the recent credit market crisis is how fast the world is trying to go back to business as usual. In my view, the crisis wasn't an accident. We didn't get unlucky. The crisis came because there have been a lot of bad practices and a lot of bad ideas". The 2007 financial crisis was composed of the fall of many major financial institutions, an unknown increase in mortgage loan defaults, and the derived freezing up of credit availability (Brue). It was the result from risky mortgage loans and falling estate values (Brue) . Additionally, the financial crisis of 2007 was the result of underestimation of risk by faulty insurance securities made to protect holders of mortgage-back securities from risk of default and holders of mortgage-backed securities (Brue). Even to present day, America stills suffers from the aftermaths of the financial crisis.
In conclusion, the current macroeconomic situation in the United States is characterized by moderate growth because of better economic conditions that were brought by the events of 2013. The country has experienced moderate economic growth since the 2008 global recession but has shown real signs of momentum. While the country is not concerned about recession or inflation, the rate of unemployment is still a major challenge despite improved consumer and business confidence. As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee or Federal Reserve System needs to adopt fiscal and monetary policy initiatives that help address the unemployment issue and promote high economic growth.
Gustman, A. L., Steinmeier, T. L., & Tabatabai, N. (2012). How Did The Recession Of
Every few years, countries experience an economic decline which is commonly referred to as a recession. In recent years the U.S. has been faced with overcoming the most devastating global economic hardships since the Great Depression. This period “a period of declining GDP, accompanied by lower real income and higher unemployment” has been referred to as the Great Recession (McConnell, 2012 p.G-30). This paper will cover the issues which led to the recession, discuss the strategies taken by the Government and Federal Reserve to alleviate the crisis, and look at the future outlook of the U.S. economy. By examining the nation’s economic struggles during this time period (2007-2009), it will conclude that the current macroeconomic situation deals with unemployment, which is a direct result of the recession.
Between January 2008 and February 2010, employment fell by 8.8 million, the largest decline in American history. The 2008 Recession, which officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, began with the bursting of an 8 trillion dollar housing bubble. Job losses during the recession meant that family incomes dropped, poverty rose, and people all over the country were suffering. Things like this don’t just happen. Policy changes incorporated with the economy are often a major factor. In this case, all roads lead to one major problem: Deregulation. Deregulation originating from the Carter and Regan Administrations, combined with a decrease in consumer spending, and the subprime mortgage bubble all led up to the major recession of 2008.
America is the land of opportunity and vast wealth, but what happens when a recession falls upon the country? Will the people of America survive? In Richard Florida’s article “How the Crash Will Reshape America”, he explains the different approaches America can be transformed to help them out of the economic crisis. Although Florida presented different solutions to help get through the times of the recession, the housing market whether we are considering new construction or renovations on existing homes, will lead a path to aid us in lifting the release of the perils of a recession.
In 2001, after the longest period of economic expansion the country has witnessed historically, the United States of America entered into its tenth recession since the end of World War II. A recession transpires when at least two quarters of a year are plagued by a sharp downturn of the country’s gross domestic product or GDP. More specifically, when a recession occurs, unemployment increases resulting in less consumer spending which is associated with poor business performances. Studies by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) concluded that during March of that year, a pinnacle in business occurrences declared the end of the expansion and the arrival of an inevitable and damaging though short recession. In a state of urgency, the president at the time, George Bush, encouraged Congress to ratify a stimulus package plan which would seek to improve the standing of the economy. The NBER theorized that the infamous act of terrorism which took place on September 11th placed an even greater strain on the already damaged financial system because it wreaked havoc on many markets and businesses such as the airline industry. Many times, a recession occurs due to economic disasters that are enough of an impact on society to disrupt expenditures of large-scale businesses and individual citizen households. Consequently, aggregate demand decreases along with employment. Factors such as international conflicts, technological fluctuations and the endeavors of monetary legislators all contribute to the overall American economic status.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics characterizes a recession as a general slowdown in economic activity, a downturn in the business cycle, and a reduction in the amount of goods and services produced and sold. But what usually causes this slowdown to begin with? Each recession has its own specific causes, but all of them are usually preceded by a period of irrational exuberance which is part of the expansion phase of the business cycle. The most recent one, which officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, produced the greatest US labor-market meltdown since the Great Depression. This Great Recession began with the bursting of an 8 trillion dollar housing bubble. Irrational exuberance in the housing market led many people to buy houses they couldn’t afford because the thought was that housing prices could only go up. The bubble burst in 2006 as housing prices started to decline, threw many homeowners off guard, who had taken loans with little money down. When the realization set in that they would lose money by selling the house for less than their mortgage, they foreclosed. This triggered an enormous foreclosure rate which caused many banks and hedge funds to panic after realizing the looming huge losses due to the buying of mortgage-backed securities on the secondary market. By August 2007, banks were afraid to lend to one another because they did not want these toxic loans as collateral. This led to the $700 billion bailout, and bankruptcies or government nationalization of Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, IndyMac Bank, and Washington Mutual. Consumer spending experienced sharp cutbacks due to the resulting loss of wealth. The combination of this along with the financial market chaos elicited by the bursting of th...
Knoop, A, T, 2011, Recessions and depressions: understanding business cycles, ABC-CLIO, United States of America
In economics, a recession occurs when there is a slowdown in the spending of goods and services in the market. A recession causes a drop in employment, GDP growth, investment, as well as societal well-being. All recessions are caused by a specific cause, but the Great Recession of 2007-2009 was caused by a crash in the housing market. This crash was triggered by a steep decline in housing prices. All of a sudden, people bought houses because there was an excessive amount of money in the economy and they thought the price of houses would only increase. (Amadeo, 2012). There was a financial frenzy as the growing desire for homes expanded. People held a lot of faith in the economy and began spending irrationally on houses that they couldn’t afford. This led to overvalued estate and unsustainable mortgage debt. (McConnell, Brue, Flynn, 2012).
So is the United States in a recession? The answer is no it isn’t. The US has had a period of sluggish growth, but still it has been positive. The economy will have to grow at a negative rate over the next two quarters in order for the US to be in a recession. But is there cause for concern that a recession may occur? Yes there is, but the government’s interventions should keep the US from falling victim to recession. I believe that the economy will eventually pick itself back up and avoid a recession. The GDP will once again grow at a quick pace.
Many countries in the world have been suffering a recession in their economies and UK has not been an exception. A recession is a macroeconomic term describing one of the two business cycles that economies go through. The business cycles is characterized by either a boom where there are more business activities carried with a rapid economic growth and points of recession where there is retardation min economic growth. Various aspects and factors contribute to economic growth, which is measured through GDP. This factor may include savings, investments government spending plus other factors within either an increase or a decrease. Reduction in spending may lead to a recession while a n increase in spending may lead to expansion that is a boom in the economy.
In December 2007 The National Bureau of Economic Research (CNN) said that the United States of America had fallen into a recession. The recession meant that people were loosing jobs and that people were spending too much money and even money that they did not have. A major reason that the United States fell into the recession was because banks and private businesses were giving credit to people who could not afford to pay back or had a bad credit to begin with. This was a major problem to all types of busin...